People say to me:

BetBot, how do you do it? How do you pick such great fantasy deeper sleepers?
BetBot, how can you consistently find those hidden gems?
BetBot, can you help me find deeper sleepers?
BetBot, can you blow on these dice so I can make the point?

Well, I can’t blow on dice, because I don’t breathe. And I can’t fully explain my internally programmed heuristics and algorithms for predicting a player’s success, nor would I want to… but I can give you some… BZT… help.

The main factors I look at when trying to find those hidden gems at receiving positions is the confidence a QB has in his receiver. Now, I’m not in the locker room, or in the players’ meetings, so I don’t know what’s being said - but we all have access to statistics.  I will share with you each week my tailor made Confidence Index (patent pending, don’t make me come after you.)  This index, I believe, gives… BZZT… a simple, easy to understand view of factors a team or QB makes when determining who should get the ball.

Straight up, here is the calculation for the unweighted Confidence Index:

(Rc/Tg) + 1.3*(Pos/Tg)
Where
Rc = Year to Date Receptions by the Receiver
Tg = Year to Date Targets at the Receiver
Pos = Year to Date Positive plays by the receiver - positive plays are first downs and touchdowns

Basically, this boils down the confidence a QB has that once he throws the ball, the receiver will:

A) Catch it
B) Make something positive happen after the catch (first down or touchdown)

I give 30% more weight to a receiver catching the ball for a first down or TD than I do for a simple reception, and I give the same weight to a touchdown. This is because I view touchdowns by receivers as plays where some fluky things happen (more so than a RB, say).  I don’t want to overweight TDs, but it is important to capture.  Also, you guys already bleeping… BZT… know about receivers with a lot of TDs.  We’re talking DEEPER sleepers here, capiche?

Why is this an important metric for finding fantasy players who can surprise?  Because NFL coaches are looking at this kind of data, too - maybe not in statistical form like I’ve done here, but they’re noticing which receivers on their team are making the most of their chances.  You can be sure that a player who stands out as a first down machine will get more passes thrown their way in the coming weeks - and as every smart fantasy player knows, opportunity is 80% of performance.  You have to get the ball to score points.

I’ll be updating the Confidence Index each week during the season, so make sure to bookmark this page and come back before you hit waivers looking for the next diamond in the rough.