Archive for the ‘Picks’ Category

Wanted to check in for a regular season recap - this has been a very good year for the BetBot picks, even though the overall numbers faded a bit down the stretch, his best plays continued to outperform, including a 3-0 Week 17 to cap off the season.  He’s busy poring over the divisional round games for his picks later this week so I’m running the final tally…

Overall: 127-103 (55.2%)

5-martini: 3-4 (42.9%)

4-martini: 8-6 (57.1%)

3-martini: 12-3 (80%)

Best plays total (3,4,5 martini): 23-13 (63.9%)

There aren’t many touts posting at 64% for the year, at least not in a way that you can independently verify using a blog archive.  And picking every game at 55% is still really good, although that’s a lot of action.  Once you get down to the rotgut roundup, we’re talking about really well handicapped games, very little margin for error.

The most interesting aspect of these results is the subpar 5-martini record when compared with the other picks.  The key problem here was not discounting the Brad Johnson Cowboys games once Tony Romo returned from injury - the BetBot was handicapping Dallas as a fairly average team all season, even before Romo’s injury.  So it was tough to gauge the results when Romo came back - we knew it would be better, but I don’t think the BetBot was aggressive enough in noting the difference.  A second improvement I could see would be accounting for the weather more late in the season, the BetBot essentially ignores weather conditions at this point - moving bad weather games lower on the martini scale may be in order.  I’ll really have to dig into it to see if that would improve the results.

I’ve been a bit occupied the last 2 weeks to give you the full analysis.  I’ll have a lot more in the coming weeks, including my full playoff analysis and picks as usual.  I will also be reviewing the year which was pretty bleeping good.  Can the good fortune carry through the playoffs?

I’m not rating these games with my usual “X martinis” ranking system - there are so few games that it’s not worth it - but if there is an obvious mismatch then I’ll point it out in the analysis.

Saturday, January 3, 4:30 PM - Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals (-1)

This is the tightest matchup in the playoffs, Atlanta has been the better team, especially over the second half of the season, but the Cardinals play much better at home.  Everyone assumes that because the Falcons have a strong running game that means they also play good defense - this is simply not true - they are not abysmal but significantly below average against the pass and the run.  Not that we have to worry about the run here, the Cardinals either cannot or do not want to run the ball, which suits me fine - regular readers know that I’m a big proponent of putting your best players on the field, common wisdom be damned.  And the best players for Arizona are all in their passing offense.  And when I say “best”, I am counting their defensive players as well, with very few players of note contributing to the below average defensive unit for Arizona.   And I think that will be their undoing this evening.  This team just hasn’t looked like a playoff team the last, oh, 2 months so with great reservation I’m backing a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs, and taking Atlanta.

Saturday, January 3, 8:00 PM - Indianapolis Colts at San Diego Chargers (+1.5)

In terms of point spread, this is the biggest surprise.  The Chargers have come on as of late and should not be getting points at home against a team they appear to be equal to.  Sure, San Diego can’t play defense, but it’s not like the Colts have been locking the opposition down.  No, this looks like a wild west shootout, Manning and Rivers trading hay makers against the over matched secondaries in this game.  A lot of people are making a big deal about Tomlinson’s groin injury but who cares?  He hasn’t shown up all season, did you expect him to play a significant role down the stretch?  This is the QB’s team now, and you can safely ignore the RB’s health.  You would think that the intangibles weigh in Indy’s favor - Dungy is the better coach, the Colts won the regular season match, Vinatieri magic, etc.  But this has all the makings of a “last team with the ball wins” and in those cases I almost always take the team getting points, especially at home.  Gimme San Diego.

Sunday, January 4, 1:00 PM - Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (+3.5)

I have been riding the Ravens bandwagon all season and they’ve only let me down once, against the Colts in mid-season where they took a beating and really looked like they were supposed to back when the August predictions came out.  Otherwise, Baltimore has lived up to the hype I’ve been laying down, featuring a decent offense and one of the league’s best defenses.  Unfortunately, I’m about to jump off the bandwagon at the most obvious time to get behind them.  I simply cannot back a rookie QB on the road in the playoffs and laying 3.5 points.  Baltimore can certainly win this game, but Blue Hens is not the best QB on the field this weekend, and Miami has the kind of game plan (titled “don’t …BZZT… mess up”) that will limit the Ravens effectiveness defensively.  If the Dolphins protect the ball, and they have all season, I see no reason why they can’t hang tight and take advantage of the point spread here.  I think it’s unlikely that Baltimore has the firepower to blow these guys out, so even if it is coming back door, I’m taking Miami and the points at home.

Sunday, January 4, 4:30 PM Philadelphia Eagles at Minnesota Vikings (+3)

You never know what you’re going to get with the Eagles, a Jekyll-n-Hyde team that reinvents new ways to soil the sheets.  It goes beyond the normal stuff - Philly fans are braced for some boneheaded move like throwing a 3 yard pass to LJ Smith at the 5-yard line with no timeouts and :06 left on the clock to end the first half.  This is par for the course for Andy Reid - he will call a timeout in this game to avoid a delay penalty because he and McNabb can’t get the play straightened out in time.  They can’t run a 2-minute drill on account of the fact that they can’t execute with urgency.  Everyone expects this.  But having 2 field goals blocked and returned for TDs against you in one season?  No missed FGs by the opposition until week 11 of the season?  Not even Reid is incompetent enough to cause this kind of bad luck - but he’s close.  And Brad Childress is his “pupil” which makes complete sense to every Vikings fan who read the above paragraph and nodded at the faint smell of lousy emanating from their own bench.  Just as Childress and Reid wasted McNabb’s prime by failing to take advantage of their situation, Childress forked off and decided to pull the same nonsense with the best RB in football, Adrian Peterson.  To wit, Minnesota is starting Tarvaris Jackson at QB in the playoffs, which is a complete joke.  Jackson has been OK in limited action this year, mostly because Minny played zero games down the stretch against a decent pass defense that gave a damn about game planning T-Jax.  But the Eagles defense is going to tear him in half, which is going to make it all the more frustrating for Eagles fans to see their defense dominate another team while the offense pisses the game away again.  Well, at least it could happen that way - with the Eagles you never know.  Which, along with 3 points at home, is all I need to take MInnesota.

Watch for matchups and second stringers!

4 martinis
Giants over VIKINGS(-7)
EAGLES (-1.5) over Cowboys

3 martinis
Raiders over BUCS (-13)
Redskins over NINERS (-3)
SAINTS (+2) over Panthers

2 martinis
COLTS (+3) over Titans

1 martini
BILLS (+5.5) over Patriots
Seahawks over CARDINALS (-7)
Broncos over Chargers (-8)
Jaguars over RAVENS (-11)
PACKERS (-11) over Lions
Bears over TEXANS (-3)
Rams over FALCONS (-14)

Rotgut Roundup
Browns over STEELERS (-11)
Dolphins over JETS (-3)
BENGALS (-2.5) over Chiefs

Editors Note: That was an awful week last week, not only 5-8 but also a loss for both 4 and 5 martini games. Something is amiss with the BetBot. So I’ve thrown out his notes and completely taken over the commentary - the picks are still his but I will try figure out what in the hell he’s thinking. I might lose my job for this, but that damn robot is killing me down the stretch! Maybe this “benching” will get the BetBot to focus in time for the playoffs, when he’s been pretty accurate over the last couple seasons.

Last week: 5-8 (31.3%)
Season: 111-89 (55.5%)
5 martini picks: 3-4 (42.9%)
4 martini picks: 4-4 (50%)
3 martini picks: 10-3 (77%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: New Orleans

5 martinis
None thank god.

4 martinis
Tennessee (+2) over Pittsburgh - He’s looking at the full season for Tennessee but clearly Pittsburgh is the hotter team. Plus, the Titans passing game has looked awful and the Steelers stop the run as well as any team in the league. BetBot probably is not fully appreciating the loss of Albert Haynesworth and Kyle Vanden Bosch.

Jacksonville (+6.5) over Indianapolis - This actually looked like a good pick, right up to the point where Jacksonville gave up on the game, which is what they’ve been doing all season.

Baltimore over Dallas (-4) - Clearly he’s still looking at the whole season and Dallas is getting discounted for the Brad Johnson experiment. That is my only explanation for how he’s constantly putting “Dallas opponent and points” as a 4 or 5 martini pick. I like the Ravens too but not as a 4-martini play.

Arizona over New England (-8) - There’s going to be bad weather, and the Patriots have played like a mediocre team this season. 8 points is a lot to overcome when mother nature gets involved. On the other hand, Arizona is treading water until the playoffs start so I doubt they’ll be too into this game.

3 martinis
St. Louis (+5.5) over San Francisco - Two bad teams, he’s taking the points and the Rams at home. This is the same thing he did in the Seattle game last week, which ended up as a push but the Rams had the lead for much of the game. Can’t argue with the logic here.

2 martinis
Oakland (+7) over Houston - The Raiders keep getting these point spreads that look pretty juicy. Playing at home against a Houston team that doesn’t travel well appears too good to be true. I would be concerned that Oakland has nothing to play for while the Texans have been playing great ball lately. Nnamdi Asomugha on Andre Johnson will be an interesting matchup.

1 martini
Cleveland (-3) over Cincinnati - He’s probably flipping a coin. No reason to discuss this game much further.

Tampa Bay (-3.5) over San Diego - Tough to make a call on this game without knowing if Garcia will play. But clearly the Bucs are a better team and at home against the puzzling Chargers. I like this pick.

Kansas City (+3.5) over Miami - No clue where this is coming from. I don’t see any way the Chiefs are going to stop the Dolphins offense.

Washington (+5) over Philadelphia - Normally I would agree here but it really looks like the Redskins are in free fall. The Eagles have to win out to have any shot at the playoffs and will likely take this one in order to fully punch their fans in the stomach during the final week of the season against Dallas. Of course, I’m an Eagles fan and the BetBot isn’t, so don’t take my word for it.

Seattle (+4) over New York Jets - Jets on the west coast laying points. That’s what he’s looking at.

Green Bay over Chicago (-4) - A real puzzler here - he nailed Jacksonville over Green Bay last week, not sure how he figures the Pack will fare better against a Bears team that is tougher than the Jaguars. I guess he likes the 4 points but I’m not convinced.

Buffalo over Denver (-6.5) - I wouldn’t take Buffalo over anyone after the way Dick Jauron constantly mismanages this team week after week. The BetBot loves taking bad defenses that lay points, and frankly he’s made a career out of simple rules like that. The way I see it, Denver has no defense but that’s only a problem if you’re playing a team who can execute, and the Bills can’t.

Rotgut Roundup
New York Giants (-3) over Carolina - Again, the BetBot likes to view teams across the entire season and discount a poor game or two. But the indication is clear in this case (which he suspected 2 weeks ago) - Eli Manning just isn’t the same QB without the ability to throw one up to Plaxico Burress when the heat is on. Plus, I highly doubt the BetBot would back Jake Delhomme on the road.

Detroit (+7) over New Orleans - I think he’s planning to take Detroit and points for the rest of the season, or at least when they’re at home. It hasn’t been a bad play down the stretch.

Minnesota (-3.5) over Atlanta - If Tarvaris Jackson is the QB, then I have a feeling the BetBot won’t be taking the Vikings much down the stretch. Down in the Rotgut it’s basically a toss-up so no harm.

Lots of highly rated games this week, as a full seven games are rated 2 martini or better. A couple of really exciting games, too - the Giants and Cowboys play to decide which off-field distractions the media will decide impacted the season more, and the Ravens and Steelers play to decide which of their QBs is faster at running away from linebackers.

This week: 9-7 (56.3%)
Season: 106-81 (56.7%)
5 martini picks: 3-3 (50%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 10-3 (77%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Indianapolis

5 martinis
New York Giants over Dallas (-3) - In the light of reports that T.O. is jealous of Tony Romo paying too much attention to Jason Witten, in addition to T.O.’s “that’s my quarterback” crying game at the end of last year, it’s time to consider if T.O. is actually in love with his QB. Then again, maybe the other receivers are the problem since Crayton and Williams reportedly complained about the distribution of “touches” also. Seriously, this team is a …BZT… soap opera, where the hell is the head coach to give these whiny bitches a backhand? Meanwhile, nobody is talking about the Giants, who played poorly last week but are still the class of the NFC - with or without Brandon Jacobs they have enough to win this game outright.

4 martinis
Oakland (+7) over New England - You didn’t believe that I could go against the Pats in Seattle last week for a 3-martini play, I know. But I’m doing the same thing this week with Oakland, only more points = more martinis. New England just is not that good, and as I said last week, they have no business laying 7 points on the west coast. From a pure football perspective, Belichick normally eats raw QBs like JaMarcus Russell and (god forbid) Andrew Walter for breakfast. So this could blow up in my face.

3 martinis
None

2 martinis
Kansas City (+5) over San Diego - Chargers laying points in Kansas City? You guys know they’re 5-8, right? The Chiefs are legitimately terrible on both sides of the ball, although they come to play every week, a testament to Herm Edwards. I’ve been pretty hard on Herm, mostly because he’s clearly overmatched as a head coach. But one thing I’ve always given him credit for is his ability to motivate the troops, and that should be enough aganst a San Diego team whose head coach is just as overmatched. This game has serious shoot-out potential, remember that Tyler Thigpen is still working to impress the bosses for next year and Philip Rivers is legit - plus nobody plays defense in this division. The Big 12 laughs at the defense played in the AFC West.

New Orleans over Chicago (-3) - This ended up being a push either way, although my thoughts were that the Bears defense wasn’t up to the task of holding down Drew Brees, plus Kyle Orton is still Kyle Orton. Turns out that Chicago did limit Brees, at least in the first half, and Kyle Orton is still Kyle Orton. Special tip of the cap to Lovie Smith, whose awful play calling in the second half nearly blew the game by putting the ball in Orton’s hands. Once you get up on the Saints, pound the hell out of them.

Detroit over Indianapolis (-17) - Playing at home in the new stadium isn’t as much of a benefit as the old Indy stadium, it just doesn’t seem as boisterous. Or maybe they’ve priced out the real Colts fans, like every other mallpark that’s kicking the average joe to the curb in favor of luxury suite fair-weathers who leave at the end of the 3rd quarter in a tie game just to beat the traffic. “I’ve got to get home to watch 60 Minutes!” Anyway, there is no chance this game will be tied at the end of the 3rd quarter - Peyton Manning may already have his shoulder pads off at that time. But that doesn’t mean they can’t go up like 28-7 at the half and then give up some garbage time points to let the Lions come in the back door. I mean, who is going to cover CJ?

Baltimore (-2) over Pittsburgh - The Ravens are better than the Steelers. There, I said it. But it’s not like an obvious mismatch. The offense is ranked slightly higher in points and yards, and the defense is about equal. The Ravens have a marginally better point differential (116 to 106). In a game where the opponents are this tightly ranked I am looking for specific matchups that are going to tilt the contest. Not to beat a dead horse, but Pittsburgh has struggled all season against teams that can rush the passer, and the Ravens have the pass rush to exploit a leaky Pittsburgh offensive line. I like Ben Roethlisberger (a lot better than Joe Flacco) but he’s going to be constantly looking over his shoulder and that’s no way to play QB. That plus home field advantage in a division game should be enough on Sunday.

Cleveland over Philadelphia (-14) - Remember when I told you last week that the Eagles would beat the Giants and lose to the Browns? Nobody else was saying that. This is how Philly works - win a game as an underdog to keep the playoff hopes alive and then lay a turd at home on Monday night against a team starting Ken Dorsey at QB. Everybody is already looking forward to the final two games against Washington and Dallas. You could look at this game and say who from the Browns is going to pose a threat - Braylon Edwards? True, but you could also say the same thing about the Bengals last month, and what did the Eagles do? They lined up nickel/dime CB Toastelio Hanson on the only Bengals threat, TJ Houshmandzadeh, who lit the place up. Horrible game planning like that coupled with a few choice McNabb-overs (that’s a turnover inside either of the twenty yard lines, particularly at the end of a half) doomed the Eagles to tie Cincy, and until Andy Reid learns the finer points of football strategy this is always possible. Although I don’t think Romeo Crennel is advanced enough to line Edwards up in the slot.

1 martini
Cincinnati (+6.5) over Washington - I am surprised to see how fast the Redskins have been falling. Two games ago, at 7-4 and with a reasonable schedule in front of them, they looked like the front runners for an NFC wild card spot. Now they’re 7-6, losers of 4 of the last 5, on the outside looking in after failing to generate offense again last week. Look, the Ravens are tough, so I expect better from the offense this week against the Bengals (where Clinton Portis will rush for gobs of yards and happily proclaim afterwards that he hasn’t felt better all season.) But until I see more from Jason Campbell, I am taking the Bengals as a home dog. Seriously Campbell - 11 TDs at this point in the season is not going to cut it, and neither will 6.3 yards per attempt. It’s going to be low scoring for Washington until they can show the league the ability to create a passing game downfield.

Miami (-6.5) over San Francisco - Shaun Hill and the Niners are the toast of the town now that they beat the Jets by 10 points at home. This is because people still think the Jets are a good team, which they are not. Now, Miami isn’t a juggernaut, but they’re better than the Jets and playing at home against a west coast team that will be without Frank Gore (yes, coach Singletary - he’ll be a game time decision.) I actually have a suspicion this will be a high scoring game - Mike Martz knows how to find the cracks in opposing defenses, and the Dolphins can be had in the air. Plus, you know the San Fran defense doesn’t really pose much of a threat - they’re OK but I don’t see them slowing down the balanced Miami attack, especially power formations where the Dolphins should be able to push the Niners around a little. The final straw? Turnovers. Miami doesn’t, San Francisco does - even under Singletary they’ve turned it over twice as often as they take it away (12-6) which is about their ratio on the season.

Rotgut Roundup
St. Louis (+3) over Seattle - Home team getting points against a 2-win Seattle squad? The Rams are bad but so are the Seahawks.

Jacksonville (+2) over Green Bay - I think the Packers are the better team here, but I’ve been giving them too much credit all season. Plus, I’m still trying to catch the wave from the backlash from the betting public over Jacksonville’s lost season.

Carolina (-7.5) over Denver - A more interesting bet would be Panthers over/under on rushing yards in this game. Good teams lose to Denver when they try to get cute instead of just pounding the soft Broncos defense into submission, thereby keeping Jay Cutler off the field. John Fox does not get cute.

Tennessee over Houston (+3) - Haha Texans, nice 3 game win streak against some of the league’s more popular also-rans. The 3 point win on the road in Green Bay was particularly nice. I still see you being trampled at home by the Titans.

Atlanta (-3) over Tampa Bay - All of a sudden, everyone’s an expert on how to beat the Bucs - just run straight at them, look at what the Panthers did! I’m not certain that’s a recipe for success every week - basically you are counting on the Bucs defense to tackle poorly every week, which would be an odd thing for a good defense to do. Who knows, maybe we’ll see it two weeks in a row?

Arizona (-3) over Minnesota - I find the lack of pass defense in Minnesota…disturbing. The Vikings would be a more reliable team to handicap if we could trust the head coach to get Adrian Peterson free enough to do consistent damage. Or maybe the problem is Peterson? Either way, they’ll have to pass eventually and that usually means turnovers.

New York Jets (-7) over Buffalo - Down here at the bottom of the roundup we occasionally find a spread that is juuussst right, and I recommend that you GO WITH YOUR GUT. As for me, I don’t know if the Jets can handle a 7 point spread. I do know that their defense is susceptible to the pass but nobody for the Bills can play QB, which I was saying 3 and 4 months ago even while the media fell in love with Trent “1:1″ Edwards (who I nicknamed after his TD:INT ratio.) Plus, Dick Jauron refuses to let Marshawn Lynch go into beast mode enough, which is as uninspired as it is arrogant. You don’t have a passing game - admit it and move on.

I suppose I can live with 9-7 again, especially if it includes a 3-martini winner.  We also broke the 100 win barrier this week, which was nice.

This week: 9-7 (56.3%)
Season: 106-81 (56.7%)
5 martini picks: 3-3 (50%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 10-3 (77%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Arizona = WIN

5 martinis
None

4 martinis
None

3 martinis
Seattle (+5) over New England - WIN - Prediction: “The Seahawks are pretty bad, especially on pass defense where Randy Moss should have an easy day. But New England is only a player because of the weak schedule they’ve been gifted, and have no business laying 5 points on a west coast road game. Seattle’s run defense is going to surprise some people in this game, they’ve been pretty decent all year despite the team’s struggles and the Patriots aren’t going to be able to run all over the Hawks.” Result: It was Welker, not Moss with the great receiving day. And the Hawks were a goal line stand away from an outright win. Interesting to see what the Seattle game does to the line this week with New England at the Raiders (another team they must struggle through on their juggernaut of a schedule.)

2 martinis
Cleveland over Tennessee (-14) - LOSS - Prediction: “This game grades out as a 2 but has my common sense circuit buzzing. Anything can happen when the 3rd QB jumps in the fire, and usually that anything is BAD. On the other hand, a few desperation heaves by the man with nothing to lose (aka Ken Dorsey) could easily cover a 2 TD spread. That is, if anyone on the Browns could catch the ball. Damn common sense, looks like it’s going to take another martini to shut you up!” Result: Ken Dorsey’s anything was BAD.

Cincinnati over Indianapolis (-13.5) - LOSS - Prediction: “The Bengals are bad but we’ve been there with them ATS as they have played a lot of decent teams pretty close this year (Dallas, Giants, Philly if you count them as decent) - I don’t think this week will be any exception. I look for the Colts to win this game but they don’t have the defense to protect a 13.5 point spread.” Result: The Bengals don’t have the offense to break a 13.5 point spread.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Dallas - WIN - Prediction: “A lot of injury concerns for the Cowboys will impact your confidence level in this game. They’ll need Barber and Ware to beat the Steelers, because this game is all about pass rush for both teams. We’ll see if the recent improvement on the Steelers offensive line is for real if Ware is healthy. I am giving the edge to Pittsburgh here because I think they have the best chance to run the ball a little bit especially with Barber nicked up, and that should carry the day. I rate DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison as two of the top five defensive players in all of football and I hope we get to both of them wreaking havoc.” Result: The Cowboys didn’t have Barber, although Ware and Harrison lived up to the hype. Sloppy game throughout, especially from Romo, and a heartbreaking loss for a Dallas team on the brink. T.O. had another sideline outburst, which is always nice.

1 martini
Oakland over San Diego (-9.5) - LOSS - Prediction: “Well this one is already a loss, but I would not have expected San Diego to be able to hold anyone to 7 points. On the other hand, it was the Raiders, including an appearance by Andrew Walter. Looks like Boy George got convicted of tying up and assaulting some escort. I’d rather investigate that situation than analyze this game any further.” Result: Still not interested in discussing this.

Philadelphia over New York Giants (-7) - WIN - Prediction: “The playoffs are still a pipe dream for Philly and the pressure is off McNabb since nobody expects them to make a 4-0 run to end the season. So this is not the game the Eagles will lose. No, they’ll win this one and then drop the Monday night game at home to the Browns next week. Lock that …BZZT… up.”  Result: The dream is still alive for the Eagles because everyone in front of them lost. They are setting you up, Philly.

San Francisco (+4) over New York Jets - WIN - Prediction: “Everybody loves the Jets here because they “had their let down game last week” and are looking for the rebound. The people that say this actually believe the Jets are good, when in fact the Jets are pretty average but with a tissue soft schedule. You are getting tired reading this from me every week, but nobody else talks about it - it’s “parity” they say. No, it’s a statistical variance in expected wins due to a small sample size, heavily influenced by strength of schedule. You look better when you play bad teams; we acknowledge this in college football, why not in the pros? The Niners stink but the 4 points at home will give them a little nudge in the right direction.” Result: Sometimes I don’t like to be right, but when an overhyped team featuring THE overhyped QB takes it on the chin while laying points on the road? You had me at overhyped. On the other hand…

Jacksonville over Chicago (-6.5) - LOSS - Prediction: “Everyone is picking against Jacksonville here because when Houston makes you look silly then chances are you are pretty …BZT… done. Amazing fall for the Jaguars, who were living off their 2007 reputation as recently as 2 weeks ago. Now we get to enjoy the backlash, as everyone punishes Jacksonville for the public’s own damn stupidity. The Jags are below average, which is a problem in their division. Thing is, Chicago is barely average but in their division it doesn’t matter since everyone is flawed and they get spotted 2 wins a year courtesy of Detroit. So I’m back on the Jacksonville wagon this week, strike up the band.” Result: The Jacksonville band wagon driver is asleep at the wheel. And yes, that’s a veiled shot at Jack Del Rio. Or David Garrard, take your pick.

Baltimore (-5.5) over Washington - WIN - Prediction: “These teams should be rivals except that they only play once every four years and the Redskins have been decidedly mediocre since Baltimore got their football franchise back (re-live the Norv Turner and Steve Spurrier regimes, tee hee.) Clinton Portis’ health is directly tied to whether or not he has a good game - this is similar to the PR that the Eagles use with Westbrook. If Portis plays a bad run defense and has a good game, then I guess he’s healthy. If Portis plays a good run defense and has a poor game, then it’s because he’s not 100%. So this Monday I expect a lot of detailed excuse making surrounding his injury-plagued effort against the Ravens.” Result: Jim Zorn says that Portis was supposedly so banged up he was benched because Mike Sellers would be better in blitz pickup. You were only down 14-0 dude, I ain’t buying it.

Rotgut Roundup
Green Bay (-6) over Houston - LOSS - Prediction: “Remember what I said about the NFC North? That explains why 5-7 Green Bay is still a contender. They can’t really stop the run, but since Houston can’t really stop anyone that shouldn’t be a problem as the Texans try to play catch-up. Also, Texas team coming north to Green Bay in December? That’s a trend I can get behind.” Result: There’s a new trend in Green Bay, and that’s the trend of middling offenses coming into Lambeau and lighting up the Packers defense. Need to fix that one in the offseason.

St. Louis over Arizona (-14) - LOSS - Prediction: “Buzzcut and the wonder twins are going to get theirs, but do you see anything that suggests the Cardinals have the chops to protect a 2-TD lead? Me neither. Going back to my Jets and Patriots comments - do you realize how bad the NFC West is? They are a combined 15-33 with a -322 point differential. Arizona still has not clinched the division despite the #2 team being the 4-8 Niners.” Result: Arizona clinched, and the Rams are so bad that the Cardinals defense outscored them.

Kansas City over Denver (-9) - WIN - Prediction: “Another game where a high-flyin’ offense is going to light up the opposition only to see their defense give up a back-door cover they shouldn’t be tasked with protecting. Speaking of bad divisions, do you realize that the second best team in the AFC West is 5-8 San Diego and the Broncos still haven’t put them away yet?” Result: Actually, the Chiefs were in this game for most of the day, and the lame Broncos defense held KC to only 10 offensive points.

Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay - WIN - Prediction: “This is actually a good game between what looks like a pair of playoff teams in the NFC. I have it down here in the Rotgut because home team -3 is a pretty good line, not because the game rots. Fans outside South Florida haven’t seen much of the Jeff Garcia experience this year, but since this is on Monday night you’ll get a little taste of the jimmylegs. Or the whirlybird. Or the hurdy gurdy. I can’t actually describe how Garcia plays QB, only that it’s not impressive and Tampa fans thank their gods that Monte Kiffin is still running a massive defense. And yet he’s still better than Jake Delhomme, who better be playing out the final year of his career as a starter.” Result: Nobody saw the Panthers being able to run the ball for 300 yards against the Bucs. That was a beat down.

Detroit (+7.5) over Minnesota - WIN - Prediction: “One of these weeks the Lions are going to win, right? Probably not but the Vikings at home is as good a shot as they’re gonna get. I like that 7.5 points at home in a division game against a mediocre opponent - it’s just the type of pick I get behind.” Result: This is why I like to get behind home dogs getting 7.5 points in a divisional game against a mediocre opponent.

Atlanta over New Orleans (-3) - LOSS - Prediction: “These teams are pretty similar, only the Saints look flashier because they score bunches in the air and give up the same. But the Falcons offense has been surprisingly excellent this season, mostly due to a rushing attack 2nd in the league in yards. And Atlanta has been just as limp on defense, against both the run and the pass. I’m not sure why, but this is the shootout nobody is expecting.” Result: I’m still not sure why nobody is talking about Atlanta’s shoddy defense. And I’m still not sure why the Saints ran the ball so much even though it worked.

Miami over Buffalo (-1) - WIN - Prediction: “Let me get this straight. A home game for Buffalo, but actually played in Toronto. Chris Berman is going to need a box of tissues.” Result: I avoided the pre-game show so I cannot comment. However, Dick Jauron once again refused to run Marshawn Lynch at the goal line, which is a recurring display of incompetence. This week he had J.P. Losman throw an interception in the end zone on a supposed fade pattern.

Can we make it 2 weeks in a row and officially end the cold streak?

Last week: 9-7 (56.3%)
Season: 97-74 (56.7%)
5 martini picks: 3-3 (50%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 9-3 (75%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Arizona

5 martinis
None

4 martinis
None

3 martinis
Seattle (+5) over New England - The Seahawks are pretty bad, especially on pass defense where Randy Moss should have an easy day. But New England is only a player because of the weak schedule they’ve been gifted, and have no business laying 5 points on a west coast road game. Seattle’s run defense is going to surprise some people in this game, they’ve been pretty decent all year despite the team’s struggles and the Patriots aren’t going to be able to run all over the Hawks.

2 martinis
Cleveland over Tennessee (-14) - This game grades out as a 2 but has my common sense circuit buzzing. Anything can happen when the 3rd QB jumps in the fire, and usually that anything is BAD. On the other hand, a few desperation heaves by the man with nothing to lose (aka Ken Dorsey) could easily cover a 2 TD spread. That is, if anyone on the Browns could catch the ball. Damn common sense, looks like it’s going to take another martini to shut you up!

Cincinnati over Indianapolis (-13.5) - The Bengals are bad but we’ve been there with them ATS as they have played a lot of decent teams pretty close this year (Dallas, Giants, Philly if you count them as decent) - I don’t think this week will be any exception. I look for the Colts to win this game but they don’t have the defense to protect a 13.5 point spread.

Pittsburgh (-3) over Dallas - A lot of injury concerns for the Cowboys will impact your confidence level in this game. They’ll need Barber and Ware to beat the Steelers, because this game is all about pass rush for both teams. We’ll see if the recent improvement on the Steelers offensive line is for real if Ware is healthy. I am giving the edge to Pittsburgh here because I think they have the best chance to run the ball a little bit especially with Barber nicked up, and that should carry the day. I rate DeMarcus Ware and James Harrison as two of the top five defensive players in all of football and I hope we get both of them wreaking havoc.

1 martini
Oakland over San Diego (-9.5) - Well this one is already a loss, but I would not have expected San Diego to be able to hold anyone to 7 points. On the other hand, it was the Raiders, including an appearance by Andrew Walter. Looks like Boy George got convicted of tying up and assaulting some escort. I’d rather investigate that situation than analyze this game any further.

Philadelphia over New York Giants (-7) - The playoffs are still a pipe dream for Philly and the pressure is off McNabb since nobody expects them to make a 4-0 run to end the season. So this is not the game the Eagles will lose. No, they’ll win this one and then drop the Monday night game at home to the Browns next week. Lock that …BZZT… up.

San Francisco (+4) over New York Jets - Everybody loves the Jets here because they “had their let down game last week” and are looking for the rebound. The people that say this actually believe the Jets are good, when in fact the Jets are pretty average but with a tissue soft schedule. You are getting tired reading this from me every week, but nobody else talks about it - it’s “parity” they say. No, it’s a statistical variance in expected wins due to a small sample size, heavily influenced by strength of schedule. You look better when you play bad teams; we acknowledge this in college football, why not in the pros? The Niners stink but the 4 points at home will give them a little nudge in the right direction.

Jacksonville over Chicago (-6.5) - Everyone is picking against Jacksonville here because when Houston makes you look silly then chances are you are pretty …BZT… done. Amazing fall for the Jaguars, who were living off their 2007 reputation as recently as 2 weeks ago. Now we get to enjoy the backlash, as everyone punishes Jacksonville for the public’s own damn stupidity. The Jags are below average, which is a problem in their division. Thing is, Chicago is barely average but in their division it doesn’t matter since everyone is flawed and they get spotted 2 wins a year courtesy of Detroit. So I’m back on the Jacksonville wagon this week, strike up the band.

Baltimore (-5.5) over Washington - These teams should be rivals except that they only play once every four years and the Redskins have been decidedly mediocre since Baltimore got their football franchise back (re-live the Norv Turner and Steve Spurrier regimes, tee hee.) Clinton Portis’ health is directly tied to whether or not he has a good game - this is similar to the PR that the Eagles use with Westbrook. If Portis plays a bad run defense and has a good game, then I guess he’s healthy. If Portis plays a good run defense and has a poor game, then it’s because he’s not 100%. So this Monday I expect a lot of detailed excuse making surrounding his injury-plagued effort against the Ravens.

Rotgut Roundup
Green Bay (-6) over Houston - Remember what I said about the NFC North? That explains why 5-7 Green Bay is still a contender. They can’t really stop the run, but since Houston can’t really stop anyone that shouldn’t be a problem as the Texans try to play catch-up. Also, Texas team coming north to Green Bay in December? That’s a trend I can get behind.

St. Louis over Arizona (-14) - Buzzcut and the wonder twins are going to get theirs, but do you see anything that suggests the Cardinals have the chops to protect a 2-TD lead? Me neither. Going back to my Jets and Patriots comments - do you realize how bad the NFC West is? They are a combined 15-33 with a -322 point differential. Arizona still has not clinched the division despite the #2 team being the 4-8 Niners.

Kansas City over Denver (-9) - Another game where a high-flyin’ offense is going to light up the opposition only to see their defense give up a back-door cover they shouldn’t be tasked with protecting. Speaking of bad divisions, do you realize that the second best team in the AFC West is 5-8 San Diego and the Broncos still haven’t put them away yet?

Carolina (-3) over Tampa Bay - This is actually a good game between what looks like a pair of playoff teams in the NFC. I have it down here in the Rotgut because home team -3 is a pretty good line, not because the game rots. Fans outside South Florida haven’t seen much of the Jeff Garcia experience this year, but since this is on Monday night you’ll get a little taste of the jimmylegs. Or the whirlybird. Or the hurdy gurdy. I can’t actually describe how Garcia plays QB, only that it’s not impressive and Tampa fans thank their gods that Monte Kiffin is still running a massive defense. And yet he’s still better than Jake Delhomme, who better be playing out the final year of his career as a starter.

Detroit (+7.5) over Minnesota - One of these weeks the Lions are going to win, right? Probably not but the Vikings at home is as good a shot as they’re gonna get. I like that 7.5 points at home in a division game against a mediocre opponent - it’s just the type of pick I get behind.

Atlanta over New Orleans (-3) - These teams are pretty similar, only the Saints look flashier because they score bunches in the air and give up the same. But the Falcons offense has been surprisingly excellent this season, mostly due to a rushing attack 2nd in the league in yards. And Atlanta has been just as limp on defense, against both the run and the pass. I’m not sure why, but this is the shootout nobody is expecting.

Miami over Buffalo (-1) - Let me get this straight. A home game for Buffalo, but actually played in Toronto. Chris Berman is going to need a box of tissues.

9-7 this week - not great but after the last 2 weeks we’ll take it.  Split it up going 1-1 on the 3-martini and better plays, although Dallas has been trouble for me lately.

5 martini

Seattle over Dallas (-12.5) - LOSS - The Cowboys are sticking it to me.  That’s 2 big covers in 2 weeks.

4 martini

None

3 martini

Atlanta over San Diego (-5) - WIN - More disappointing - the Chargers season or the play of LaDainian Tomlinson?

2 martini

Cleveland (+5) over Indianapolis - WIN - The weather helped, Cleveland’s QB play hurt.  I don’t see the second one getting much better with Ken Dorsey at the helm.  On the other hand, can it get much worse?

1 martini

Oakland (-3) over Kansas City - LOSS - The Chiefs pull it together for a week, and on the road to boot.  That Herm Edwards, he so crafty.

San Francisco over Buffalo (-6.5) - WIN - Dick Jauron refuses to run Marshawn Lynch in the red zone, Bills score 3 points.  This is pure incompetence.  Rian Lindell made his coach look even dumber by missing a couple chip shots.

Jacksonville over Houston (-3) - LOSS - Too bad for the Texans that they can’t play Jacksonville every week on Monday night.

Detroit (+11) over Tennessee - LOSS - The Millen era has been so embarrassing that ESPN is lobbying for the Lions to lose Thanksgiving Day games because they always get trounced.  1) Detroit doesn’t always lose, which ESPN would know if they had any journalists working there, or if they cared at all about reporting the truth (Lions T-Day record is now 33-34-2)  and 2) Go to hell you arrogant bastards.

Pittsburgh over New England (-1) - WIN - Pittsburgh is an elite unit and the Patriots are a mediocre team puffed up by a ridiculously easy schedule.

Denver over New York Jets (-8) - WIN - Denver is not an elite unit, but the Jets are a mediocre team puffed up by a ridiculously easy schedule (but better than the Patriots.)

Chicago over Minnesota (-3) - LOSS - Good news for Chicago: the QBs are playing like it’s the 2006 super bowl season again!  Bad news for Chicago: the 2006 defense didn’t get the memo.

Rotgut Roundup

St. Louis (+7.5) over Miami - WIN - Miami needs to do more on offense against teams as bad as the Rams.  See my other comments about the AFC East schedule this year.

Cincinnati (+7) over Baltimore - LOSS - Yeeouch.  There has been a Mark Clayton sighting - remember, this guy was a top 20 pick in 2005.

Carolina over Green Bay (-3) - WIN - Steve Smith was tackled twice at the one yard line after long passes.  Can you imagine if the Smith owner was playing the DeAngelo Williams owner in your fantasy league?  Pure gold baby.

New York Giants over Washington (+3.5) - WIN - The Redskins smell like a team going downhill fast - as soon as Portis got nicked up Jason Campbell’s play went erratic again.

Arizona over Philadelphia (-3) - LOSS - Guess what, Philly?  Pressure’s off with the playoffs almost certainly out of reach, time for McNabb to step up his game again.

New Orleans over Tampa Bay (-3.5) - WIN - The half point cover, delicious.

Real quick this week:

5 martini

Seattle over Dallas (-12.5) - D’OH!

4 martini

None

3 martini

Atlanta over San Diego (-5)

2 martini

Cleveland (+5) over Indianapolis

1 martini

Oakland (-3) over Kansas City

San Francisco over Buffalo (-6.5)

Jacksonville over Houston (-3)

Detroit (+11) over Tennessee - D’OH!

Pittsburgh over New England (-1)

Denver over New York Jets (-8)

Chicago over Minnesota (-3)

Rotgut Roundup

St. Louis (+7.5) over Miami

Cincinnati (+7) over Baltimore

Carolina over Green Bay (-3)

New York Giants over Washington (+3.5)

Arizona over Philadelphia (-3) - D’OH!

New Orleans over Tampa Bay (-3.5)

I’ll have the rest up tomorrow, for now enjoy these quickie picks for the Thursday games.