Week 12 Picks

The Thursday night game went well as we picked up an early win and also the pick ‘em play for the week. It was nice to see a team cover T.J. Houshmandzadeh with a real defender instead of their 4th best cornerback, which is how the Eagles decided to play it (using Toastelio Hanson.)

Last week: 8-8 (50%)
Season: 88-67 (56.8%)
5 martini picks: 3-2 (60%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 8-3 (73%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Pittsburgh

5 martinis
None

4 martinis
San Francisco at Dallas (-10.5) - It seems like I make “whoever plays against Dallas” a 4 or 5 martini pick each week but I assure you that’s not because of any dislike for the Cowboys. It’s just that they are so over-inflated I can’t help myself, and to the doubters I would say check what I was writing about them back before Romo got hurt and their pass defense was in shambles - it all still applies here. Now, the Niners are terrible but they play a little defense and their special teams are good - which is worth noting because Dallas has terrible special teams play and that can make a difference. I don’t see any way Shaun Hill does not get sledgehammered by DeMarcus Ware here, so turnovers are almost surely going to favor the Cowboys. However, as I say practically every week, double digit spreads in the NFL are not to be taken lightly, and I still have not seen enough from the Cowboys secondary to make me think they can hold off a Niners comeback - so I’m taking San Francisco.

Green Bay at New Orleans (-2.5) - The Packers are a bit like the Eagles, the 5-5 record is a bit worse than their +65 point differential suggests, although that is inflated following a 37-3 beat down of the Bears last weekend. Green Bay matches up well against the Saints, primarily in the fact that the Saints can’t run the ball (with or without Reggie Bush they trot out a 3.7 yards per carry average) and run defense is the only area where the Pack really struggles. Drew Brees is having another great year but Green Bay can play pass defense with anyone in the league, which is surprising since Al Harris is still employed as a CB - if the refs are giving New Orleans the home town discount on illegal contact calls, that will spell trouble for the Packers D. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers is quietly posting 7.4 yards per attempt and better than a 2-1 TD/Int ratio. If the Pack can post a few more wins he’ll start getting some real pub from the media that judges QBs by win-loss records and also happens to love the old QB in Wisconsin, who is playing worse than Rodgers against significantly weaker competition. This game will help - the Saints defense can’t stop the run or pass, so there’s no reason Green Bay shouldn’t roll.

3 martinis
None

2 martinis
Indianapolis at San Diego (-2.5) - I am hearing a lot of talk about the Chargers poor season but let’s place the blame properly - it’s entirely the defense’s fault. Philip Rivers has actually been very good (last week notwithstanding) and should be a pro bowler in the weak AFC QB class, an honor which may be about the only thing to salvage from this season. Pundits note that San Diego is only two games behind the Broncos and the way Denver plays that margin could evaporate real quick. While technically true, this week should be the end of that discussion, with the conversation shifting to whether or not Norv Turner has bungled this job enough to get curbed. Reason I say this is because Peyton Manning has rebounded from some early slowness due to injury rehab and quietly has the Colts offense back in top form, and homeless people in the greater San Diego area have already lined up outside the stadium to warm themselves by the expected torching of the Chargers secondary. This looks like an enormous shoot-out and I recommend Indianapolis and the points.

Chicago at St. Louis (+8) - My kingdom for a Kyle Orton! The Bears are so afraid of playing Sexy Rexy that they rushed the neckbeard back last week with predictably disastrous results, although neither QB turned the ball over which was a nice touch. That shouldn’t be a problem this week, because EVERYONE passes on the Rams, or they would if they weren’t running through the Rams. Still, St. Louis always plays better at home on the turf and Chicago’s pass defense is kind of a mirage - I’m not even looking at the yards against total (ranked 30th) because the run defense is good enough to force a lot of passing (405 pass attempts against, most in the league.) Even taking that into account the yards per attempt is slightly above average - problem being that the perception is the pass defense is elite when it’s not. I think Bulger and Avery can do some things in this game and I’m taking St. Louis to cover.

1 martini
New York Giants at Arizona (+3.5) - There’s a lot you can say about the Giants season, but I think that all we need to focus on is their 5.3 yards per attempt on the ground - best in the league and that’s not even adjusting for opponent. What’s even more impressive is when you drop 207 rushing yards on an elite Ravens defense that hadn’t allowed more than 100 yards on the ground all season (and only 3 times in the previous season.) The Cardinals aren’t going to be able to stop that in the trenches, but they will be able to put some points on the board and pressure the Giants out of their run game if this plays out right for Buzzcut, Boldin, and Fitzgerald. This is as good as it gets in the NFL for passing, so much so that they don’t even consider running the ball - why bother when the QB completes 70% of his passes and 8.3 yards per attempt? Overall, New York is a better team - more balanced and better on defense, but I must take Arizona getting points at home, too much passing game for them to fall way out of it. Buzzcut turnovers could be an issue as in the Jets game.

New England at Miami (-2) - A little nervous about this game because the Dolphins aren’t going to surprise the Pats with the wildcat formation again. Plus, Cassel has improved since the last time and New England should be able to throw a little bit on the secondary. Still, I can’t help but notice that Miami has been as good as New England this year, have already beat them soundly on the road, and are only laying 2 points at home. If the Dolphins were starting a green QB I’d look for Belichick to blow the wildcat up, but even if he does that the Dolphins can go to a traditional offense and win straight up too. All told, they’ll have success lining up Brown or Pennington under center, and I’m taking Miami to sweep the series and take a major step forward in their playoff push.

Buffalo at Kansas City (+3) - I told you guys Berman would make a laughing stock of the BUF-CLE pregame show last week and he did, even dragging poor Jim Kelly into it. Some things you wish would go away just won’t. Like herpes. Yes, Chris Berman’s coverage of the Buffalo Bills is like having herpes, that’s exactly how I feel. I also told you that featuring Beast Mode was the path to great success against Cleveland, and that Jauron would screw it up which he did by trying to run the offense through Trent Edwards, who I shall now refer to as “Bambi” because that deer is caught in headlights. The new look Chiefs are rallying behind Tyler Thigpen and the rootin’-tootin’ pistol formation, if by “rallying” we mean losing by less than 14 - which I think is fair for this team. Once again we present an interesting challenge to the Buffalo coaching staff - will you or will you not run the hell out of the ball against a Chiefs defense that gives it up to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry? Let’s just say I’m not confident, take Kansas City.

Washington at Seattle (+3.5) - I’m taking Seattle after putting the Redskins on probation this week for allowing Martellus Bennett to beat them in a 5-martini game. The Seahawks have to be able to win a game at home against a team other than the Rams, right? Guys?

Philadelphia at Baltimore (-1) - The Eagles have a +71 point differential, third in the league behind the Giants (+122) and Titans (+113). It’s difficult to express in words how disappointing this team plays, and for those of you who want to claim their points scored number has gotten fat off of bad opponents, go check the box scores and then continue breathing through your mouths. If not convinced, take my word for it that Philly SHOULD be a good team, or at least they’ve played well enough at times to masquerade as a good team. But that’s no reason to give them a pass for what they really are - a thoroughly mismanaged group of scheme players with a quarterback that takes until sometime in the second quarter to figure out how to complete a pass. The Ravens are still starting a rookie QB but Blue Hens shouldn’t need to do much but avoid getting cute, the Ravens have enough horses to ram it down Philly’s throat and that should be enough. I’m taking Baltimore to play it conservative and wait for the Eagles to hand this game over via turnovers or a series of 3-and-out induced field position losses.

New York Jets at Tennessee (-5) - All aboard the Jets bandwagon! Now that New York has taken a one game lead in the decidedly mediocre AFC East, it seems like it’s time to anoint them as the next big thing and ride on into the super bowl. Well, this week the Jets will feel the sting of reality slapping them in the face. As I outlined last week, they have literally not played anybody worth discussing, except perhaps the Arizona Cardinals. That’s not the fault of the Jets, but when you play in an average division, and your out of division schedule features teams from the barely professional AFC and NFC West, it’s easy to get overconfident about your 7-3 record. The Titans are better than the Jets in nearly every dimension and I expect New York will struggle to move the ball. If you can get a prop bet on Brett Favre turning the ball over 2 or more times, take it. Although I am liking Leon Washington’s chances for some excellent returns in this game, I must take Tennessee at home to cover this spread and cool off all of the “Jets are a contender” talk.

Houston at Cleveland (-3) - This is why gambling is so popular. There is no reason to even discuss this game between a team of also-rans starting their backup QBs in November. But for the record, Ohio is a lot colder than Texas this time of year, so gimme Cleveland.

Oakland at Denver (-9.5) - It’s too bad Lane Kiffin isn’t still coaching the Raiders, because attempting a 70 yard field goal in Mile High isn’t completely looney. Mostly looney, but at least the thin air gives you a reasonable excuse. Anyway, every week we have one of these games where a team with no defense is laying a ton of points, and every week I clean up on this nonsense. With that in mind, I’ll take Oakland.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-10.5) - The Bengals look like they got a little frisky last weekend in forcing a tie with the Eagles, but just to point out how unlucky they’ve been this year - Shayne Graham’s miss at the end of overtime was the first FG missed against the Eagles all season. When your bad luck trumps that kind of bad luck, you’re having a bad season. Now, lest you think Cincy is showing some signs of life, keep in mind that the only thing that kept them in the game was a colossally dumb game plan by Andy Reid to throw the ball 58 times in swirling wind, coupled with a 4 turnover day in the worst game of Donovan McNabb’s career. Oh, and one of those turnovers was recovered at the Eagles’ one yard line. This week brings these cats to steeltown, where the coach understands the concept of offensive balance, meaning the QB probably won’t get the chance to turn the ball over four times. Oh, and the Steelers achilles heel - pass protection? Not a problem since the Bengals have only recorded 11 sacks all year! Take Pittsburgh to crush these fools for the state of Pennsylvania.

Minnesota at Jacksonville (-2) - I’m trying to decide the funniest thing about Troy Williamson calling out Brad Childress. Probably the fact that Williamson had a forum to discuss this before a game in which he won’t even be playing, even though he’s had this game “circled on his schedule.” I could go the easy way and follow Jared Allen’s advice of getting behind whoever has “a kickass mustache” but seeing as said mustache is attached to the face of a terribly overmatched head coach, I’m taking Jacksonville.

Rotgut Roundup
Tampa Bay at Detroit (+8.5) - I have no idea how this game is going to turn out - the Lions are pitiful but have been randomly keeping games close enough to earn some respect against the spread. I don’t know if the Lions who like to cover are going to show up this week, but I do know that Warrick Dunn and Jeff Garcia are the starting backfield for the Bucs, which means two things: 1) this game will be downright unwatchable, and 2) I’m taking Detroit.

Carolina at Atlanta (-1.5) - When I first heard the “Matty Ice” nickname for Matt Ryan, I immediately thought oh hell no. It sounds dumb, just bleeping ridiculous. Matty Ice? Who is the pipe that decided on Matty Ice? “Yo, bro, throw me one of them Matty Ices!” Ryan and his college buddies were likely drinking Natural Ice while playing Tecmo bowl and twisted “Natty Ice” into “Matty Ice” in a drunken stupor. Now I have to read BS stories about how the name is because “he’s so cool on the field.” Who are the …BZZZT… morons that fall for this jackassery? With only one letter between “Matty” and “Natty,” I think we know this crap originated at a frat party, not on the bleeping sidelines. I’m taking Carolina to beat the nonsense out of this kid.