Week 11 Picks

Heck of a game last night - you have to love Brett Favre when he’s not slinging it around like a tool and just plays within the offense. But the most impressive thing I saw from a QB last night was Matt Cassel’s rope to Randy Moss to tie the game with 1 second left - Ty Law was all over Moss and Cassel still drilled it in there. Could it be that this kid’s a player?

Last week: 7-7 (50%)
Season: 80-59 (57.6%)
5 martini picks: 3-1 (75%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 8-3 (73%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Carolina

5 martinis
Dallas at Washington (+1.5) - What in the …BZT… world? Lots of questions about this game because there are injury concerns on both teams - Romo and Witten sound ready to go but the wild card here will be Clinton Portis’ status. Now, while it’s true that he ran for 121 yards in the first meeting the star of that game was Jason Campbell, who took advantage of a not-then-known degenerating Cowboys pass defense. Well, I smelled something funny in dropping a 3-martini call on Washington back then, too. Point is, the Redskins have played better than the Cowboys this year and are getting points at home - remember that Dallas was falling apart in the secondary in the weeks before Romo got hurt, too. All signs point to the Redskins winning this game outright, but again it’s tough to gauge the impact of replacing Portis with Ladell Betts (great as Clinton’s fill in during ‘06 but he’s dinged up now too) or Shaun Alexander (much worse than Portis.) Take Washington at home and enjoy the points.

4 martinis
None

3 martinis
None

2 martinis
New York Jets at New England (-3) - Don’t look now, but the Jets are making some noise in the NFC East, relying mostly on a schedule that has been supremely tasty. Their opponents since their week 5 bye: Bengals, Raiders, Chiefs, Bills, Rams. That’s 10-34 folks, and 5 of those wins come from fading Buffalo. Hey guys, you forgot Detroit! Now don’t get me wrong, I like the Jets, but we really haven’t seen them play anyone recently so it’s easy to get filled up on the icing. At some point you have to eat some cake, and well here comes the 6-3 Patriots, themselves fat from a bunch of limp excuses for opponents. Who scheduled for the AFC East this year, Barry Switzer? Anyway, it’s interesting to note that the Jets have outscored the opposition by 65 points, the Patriots only 28. That’s a difference you can’t ignore, and a telling sign about which of these teams is more “for real”. These teams both run the ball well and defend against the run well, and that’s about it - so with those two units neutralized we’re going to need some QB play to pull this one out, and it’s worth noting that the first game these two played turned on a classic Brett Favre pick. I’m not so sure that won’t happen again, but in what should be a low scoring game I’m taking New York and all the points I can get.

1 martini
St. Louis at San Francisco (-6) - Wow, that Donnie Avery came and went, huh? Steven Jackson is banged up and with another wasted season staring them down, I don’t expect the Rams to rush back the only offensive player they’ll be able to market until they’re competitive again (he’s only 25.) Then again, Jim Haslett has nothing to lose, so he may talk a good talk but throw him in there anyway and try to steal another win or two and get some consideration for the head coach job next year. I mean, after all of the minority candidates that Rams management is sure to take a very hard look at. We got the memo, it’s all cool guys. Speaking of interim head coaches, how about that Mike Singletary? All fire and emotion - which is a nice distraction from the fact that his team keeps losing. On Monday night the ESPN crew kept fawning on Jed York, the 27 year old VP of 49ers strategic planning, like he was some kind of wunderkind that was at the forefront of a football revolution or something. Hey geniuses, the 49ers haven’t had a winning record since 2002 and the current team is 2-7 and a game or two from playing out the string. Perhaps Jed’s Notre Dame roots have led them to their Irish QB combo this season, JT O’Sullivan and Shaun Hill. Certainly it wasn’t any kind of football acumen from the front office, because those O’Hill guys suck out loud (and yet they beat out the team’s supposed franchise QB.) Anyway, odd move for the ESPN crew to rub down young Jed, because clearly Jed York is PART OF THE PROBLEM. It says right on the 49ers website that he helped restructure the organization and hire Mike Nolan, and can anyone say that those moves were anything but a profound failure? A lot of words on a game no one will watch, but in terms of picking a winner, San Francisco can play a little defense so I’m taking them.

New Orleans at Kansas City (+5.5) - Our second home dog this week, and it’s going to be a fantasy dee-light. Nobody has been noticing but the spread-look Chiefs have become a bit of a fantasy play in recent weeks, with Tyler Thigpen leading the offense to 3 straight weeks with 330+ total yards. Now, in and of itself that’s nothing special but at least they’re putting up a fight and producing some fantasy points. LJ returns this week so I hope Herm doesn’t throttle back the wide open passing game KC has been using lately. Perhaps “throttle” is an insensitive term to use when LJ is in the discussion. Anyway, the reason nobody is noticing is because they still only have 1 win thanks to a defense that’s still allowing 400+ yards a game. That won’t change this week when the Saints roll into town with their own high powered offense (and similarly awful defense.) I think you guys know how I like these games that look like shoot-outs - last person with the ball wins, and take the points - meaning Kansas City is the play at home. P.S. Don’t tell anyone but Mark Bradley has been getting as many targets as Bowe and Gonzalez - in case you’re looking for that waiver wire no-name you can use to boost your fantasy team during the playoff run.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-5) - Cleveland at Buffalo on Monday Night? Ugh. Well, at least we know the weather won’t be a factor, and the Browns won’t be distracted by the women in the stands. But the pre-game show featuring Chris Berman will be unwatchable, guaranteed. I’m going to circle your …BZT… wagons. The decision to put the Browns on prime-time night games every other week has backfired spectacularly, they ride an uninspired 3-6 record and a “replacement QB of the future” into Ralph Wilson stadium. But the QB is the least of their problems, since the defense is allowing almost 5 yards per carry and over 7 yards per pass attempt - which means one pass + one run = 12 yards on average. Now that’s math the Bills can get behind, especially coming off 3 straight games against pretty good rush defenses. And that’s where it all starts for Buffalo, because their line has been marshmallow soft this year and have no chance at containing Shaun Rogers, who I’m pretty sure loves to eat marshmallows. If they can quit fooling around with Fred Jackson and get Beast Mode into a rhythm they’ll have a good chance to win this game. Unfortunately, Dick Jauron doesn’t inspire any confidence, especially the way he’s been fawned on this season by the press. Coach of the year my ass. “I’m 5-1 and toast of the town…crap I lost 3 in a row, I suck again…” Last time he won a big game? Yeah. I’m taking Cleveland and the points - should be a pretty close game since the Bills can screw this up.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5) - Now here’s an interesting matchup, because both teams have the same kind of aroma. Defense good, offense baaaad. The fact that a team with Adrian Peterson (4.9 Y/A) running behind a line featuring Steve Hutchinson can’t generate offense is a testament to the absolute black hole sucking at QB this season for the Vikings. It’s comical that this team fashions itself a contender despite the sytlings of Gus Frerotten (10 TDs, 11 INTs). Seriously, they’ve scored 5 fewer points than the opposition this season. Frerotten isn’t a game manager, he’s a game mis-manager - stop …BZZT… bleeping throwing the ball Childress, you dumbass. With that defense you should pound the ball with Peterson and Taylor, kick some field goals, and play to your strengths. The Vikings have turned the ball over 3 or more times 4 games already this season. Think about it. Jon Gruden doesn’t have a great offense but he ain’t that dumb - he quickly learned from his Griese mistake (6 INTs in 2 games) and kicked him back to the bench in favor of an actual game manager in Jeff Garcia (who has sucked out loud this year.) The Bucs love forcing turnovers and I don’t think Frerotten will be able to help himself, so I’m taking Tampa Bay.

Baltimore at New York Giants (-6.5) - The Giants are legit, and there’s no getting around it. But the Ravens defense is going to put them to the test - I don’t expect the New York running game to allow the offense to dictate tempo like they’ve done so often this year. Whatever bug is up Plaxico Burress’ rear, he better remove it this week because the passing game is going to have to get up for this one as Baltimore is death to the run. Burress is Eli’s favorite security blanket and with those two having a lover’s quarrel or whatever, I don’t really know what to make of Manning this year. He’s been very efficient and improved in every facet of the game, especially with protecting the ball. But I still haven’t seen him have to throw to beat a good defense, and I still remember the old Eli backpedal at the first sign of danger and heaving it up for Plaxico. Can they just flip on the magic? I have been a huge supporter of the Ravens this season, the fact that they start a rookie QB means the lines are suppressed but the defense has just been spectacular - especially up front - and we’ve made a killing ATS on these guys. We’ll see if Blue Hens can keep his composure against the Giants pass rush (non-existent last week in Philly, BTW - and no, it’s not because the field conditions were poor…) They’ll need some good field position to win this game, but the defense will keep it close so I’m taking Baltimore.

Denver at Atlanta (-6) - I really like this game - I mean, can the Falcons be for real this quickly? Against the Broncos every offense looks for real, if by “for real” we mean “SHA-ZAYAM!” Can you imagine how bad Denver would be without Jay Cutler flinging the ball all over the place? The running back situation got so bad they brought back Tatum Bell, with Coach Nosferatu admitting in his mid-week press conference that there wasn’t anybody else left. Oh, yes please, let’s make a luggage joke now….ok done? So anyway some teams have passing downs and running downs but Denver only has passing downs - right from the get go they’re running shotgun sets with empty backfields. It’s like watching a Big XII college game but without all the pissing and moaning about how they don’t get any respect because they beat Baylor 56-49. There’s a reason nobody thinks the Arena league is really football, boys. Nice job by Ron Jaworski pimping the AFL on Monday night as a great place to train QBs, though - seeing as he’s part owner of the Philadelphia Soul. But back to the Denver defense - they’re god-awful even with Champ Bailey possibly returning this week, and between Michael Turner and Jerious Norwood the Falcons could rush for 300 yards in this game. So gimme Atlanta.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-5) - Are we still operating under the assumption that the Chargers are players here? Anything can happen in the NFC West but they’ve been remarkably average and just like their rivals in Colorado they can’t play defense. I’ve been saying all season long that the Steelers are a good team with a glaring weakness in the offensive line, and I will keep saying it because it’s games like this that stick out like a sore thumb. San Diego can’t rush the passer, and if you can’t rush Ben Roethlisberger he’ll bleeping kill you. Sometimes it’s that simple - I’m taking Pittsburgh and laying the points - there is going to be a lot of scoring in the air for the home team this week. The only thing that concerns me is that the weather looks overcast for western PA this weekend which means we don’t get to enjoy Mike Tomlin’s kickass shades.

Rotgut Roundup
Arizona at Seattle (+3) - Jaws was talking about Kurt Warner in the aforementioned pimping of the AFL as the new cradle of quarterbacks, and again I can’t really fault him - Buzzcut has been tons of fun this season. Against a toothless Seahawks defense you’d think I’d be all over the Cardinals but noooooo. Hasselbeck and Branch return to spark some life into the ‘Hawks offense and I like Seattle with the points at home. I’m just not sold on the Arizona defense and this has a shoot-out look to me.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5) - Fantasy players around the world lament the knee sprain of Matt Schaub and pray he’ll be available by fantasy playoff time to help boost Andre Johnson back to his October production level (you know, when he turned into Zeus.) The schedule don’t look so bleeping good, mang - but you will like it this week since Indy isn’t all that great on D. I’m taking Houston to keep this one close enough to cover that 8.5 point spread.

Chicago at Green Bay (-4) - At what point in the pre-season did we ever think Bears fans would be spamming F5 to refresh the injury report, hoping to see Kyle Orton get healthy again? That says it all for me - I don’t see how the Packers can lose this game at home, gimme Green Bay.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (+9) - Andy Reid has been exposed as little more than a good QB coach but as McNabb comes down off his peak, he can’t cover up all the problems with the rest of this Eagles team. Think of an elite player drafted by Reid that isn’t McNabb and you have…Brian Westbrook. That’s about it for 10 years of drafting. On the other hand, even Reid can’t screw up a game aginst the Bengals, right? Right? Take Philadelphia.

Detroit at Carolina (-14) - You know how I feel about these enormous point spreads. I just can’t make myself do it, not with Jake Delhomme willing and able to throw picks all over the yard. Steve Smith is pretty pissed right now after last week’s turd of a performance, if I were Ray Lucas I’d keep my bleeping distance. Take the points, er, Detroit.

Oakland at Miami (-10.5) - Again, for the hard of hearing: I LIKE MIAMI BUT THEY AREN’T GOOD ENOUGH TO LAY 10.5 POINTS. Although this week against the Raiders, it’s close. Gimme Oakland anyway.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3) - The Jaguars can’t stop the run, and that means good news for Fatty and Scatty in the Titans backfield. On the other hand, are we sure Tennessee isn’t due for a letdown game? Hey, I like the way you’re thinking, I’ll take Jacksonville too.