Archive for November, 2008

Real quick this week:

5 martini

Seattle over Dallas (-12.5) - D’OH!

4 martini

None

3 martini

Atlanta over San Diego (-5)

2 martini

Cleveland (+5) over Indianapolis

1 martini

Oakland (-3) over Kansas City

San Francisco over Buffalo (-6.5)

Jacksonville over Houston (-3)

Detroit (+11) over Tennessee - D’OH!

Pittsburgh over New England (-1)

Denver over New York Jets (-8)

Chicago over Minnesota (-3)

Rotgut Roundup

St. Louis (+7.5) over Miami

Cincinnati (+7) over Baltimore

Carolina over Green Bay (-3)

New York Giants over Washington (+3.5)

Arizona over Philadelphia (-3) - D’OH!

New Orleans over Tampa Bay (-3.5)

I’ll have the rest up tomorrow, for now enjoy these quickie picks for the Thursday games.

Detroit (+8.5) over Tampa Bay - LOSS

Atlanta (-1.5) over Carolina - LOSS

As we continue the discussion on trimming your playoff roster; we look at two interesting positions –WR and TE. These positions are unique in that you may wish to hoard players who may not start for you – to keep them from the other owners. This is not something you can do at QB due to the scarcity of the position, and any RBs worth having on a roster are most likely on a roster.

WR – There’s no player dependent strategy here (Player dependent meaning backing up a starter as for RBs). If you’ve been a faithful reader you are doing OK at WR already (Eddie Royal, Greg Camarillo before most writers were calling them…not to toot my own voice modulating speakerbox). All I can tell you is if you have a WR you’ve had on your roster but who isn’t performing well enough to crack your roster – look to drop him for another position of need.

If you are so stacked at WR that your backups could be starting for your competition, then it may be worth it to hold on to a backup to keep him from a competitor. You need to make that call yourself, but look at your competitions rosters; if they have been riding a good ground game with a middling WR corps, it may be prudent to make your team stronger by making your opponent weaker.

TE – Still a couple sleepers out there. The likes of Betbot favorite Brent Celek and Billy Miller may be out there. Again, if you have a guy on your team who may possibly start for another team, keep him…Otherwise it may not be …BZZT…worth your time to have a backup TE on your team. Keep your starter and that may be all you need, especially if he’s a stud. Drop your backup and pick up another TE only if your starter gets injured. If you don’t have a top 6 TE, then keep 2 and play the matchups as they present themselves.

K – You only need one…No one kicker is lighting the world on fire this year and the spread between the top 15 kickers is not so great that you should be hoarding this position.

D/ST – Look at the schedule going down the road, you may wish to get a second D/ST that has a tasty matchup down the road, especially in week 15 and 16…Pick them up now and stash them till you need them!!

Some teams to look at: St. Louis (we’re looking at the piss poor offensive teams here folks) – Seattle week 15 and Jets week 16…Nice!

Cincinnati – Washington and Cleveland

Detroit - Indianapolis and New Orleans

Oakland – New England and Houston

If you have one of the teams with the good matchup in week 15, then look to grab the Jets, Browns, Saints or Texans for week 16 and vice versa…

Besides the actual player pickup or drops you do tactically – you need to understand that NOW is the time to make your moves, grab the initiative and make these moves before the week 13 games!

Showgirls and Gin my friends, Showgirls and…BZZZT…gin.

The Thursday night game went well as we picked up an early win and also the pick ‘em play for the week. It was nice to see a team cover T.J. Houshmandzadeh with a real defender instead of their 4th best cornerback, which is how the Eagles decided to play it (using Toastelio Hanson.)

Last week: 8-8 (50%)
Season: 88-67 (56.8%)
5 martini picks: 3-2 (60%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 8-3 (73%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Pittsburgh

5 martinis
None

4 martinis
San Francisco at Dallas (-10.5) - It seems like I make “whoever plays against Dallas” a 4 or 5 martini pick each week but I assure you that’s not because of any dislike for the Cowboys. It’s just that they are so over-inflated I can’t help myself, and to the doubters I would say check what I was writing about them back before Romo got hurt and their pass defense was in shambles - it all still applies here. Now, the Niners are terrible but they play a little defense and their special teams are good - which is worth noting because Dallas has terrible special teams play and that can make a difference. I don’t see any way Shaun Hill does not get sledgehammered by DeMarcus Ware here, so turnovers are almost surely going to favor the Cowboys. However, as I say practically every week, double digit spreads in the NFL are not to be taken lightly, and I still have not seen enough from the Cowboys secondary to make me think they can hold off a Niners comeback - so I’m taking San Francisco.

Green Bay at New Orleans (-2.5) - The Packers are a bit like the Eagles, the 5-5 record is a bit worse than their +65 point differential suggests, although that is inflated following a 37-3 beat down of the Bears last weekend. Green Bay matches up well against the Saints, primarily in the fact that the Saints can’t run the ball (with or without Reggie Bush they trot out a 3.7 yards per carry average) and run defense is the only area where the Pack really struggles. Drew Brees is having another great year but Green Bay can play pass defense with anyone in the league, which is surprising since Al Harris is still employed as a CB - if the refs are giving New Orleans the home town discount on illegal contact calls, that will spell trouble for the Packers D. Offensively, Aaron Rodgers is quietly posting 7.4 yards per attempt and better than a 2-1 TD/Int ratio. If the Pack can post a few more wins he’ll start getting some real pub from the media that judges QBs by win-loss records and also happens to love the old QB in Wisconsin, who is playing worse than Rodgers against significantly weaker competition. This game will help - the Saints defense can’t stop the run or pass, so there’s no reason Green Bay shouldn’t roll.

3 martinis
None

2 martinis
Indianapolis at San Diego (-2.5) - I am hearing a lot of talk about the Chargers poor season but let’s place the blame properly - it’s entirely the defense’s fault. Philip Rivers has actually been very good (last week notwithstanding) and should be a pro bowler in the weak AFC QB class, an honor which may be about the only thing to salvage from this season. Pundits note that San Diego is only two games behind the Broncos and the way Denver plays that margin could evaporate real quick. While technically true, this week should be the end of that discussion, with the conversation shifting to whether or not Norv Turner has bungled this job enough to get curbed. Reason I say this is because Peyton Manning has rebounded from some early slowness due to injury rehab and quietly has the Colts offense back in top form, and homeless people in the greater San Diego area have already lined up outside the stadium to warm themselves by the expected torching of the Chargers secondary. This looks like an enormous shoot-out and I recommend Indianapolis and the points.

Chicago at St. Louis (+8) - My kingdom for a Kyle Orton! The Bears are so afraid of playing Sexy Rexy that they rushed the neckbeard back last week with predictably disastrous results, although neither QB turned the ball over which was a nice touch. That shouldn’t be a problem this week, because EVERYONE passes on the Rams, or they would if they weren’t running through the Rams. Still, St. Louis always plays better at home on the turf and Chicago’s pass defense is kind of a mirage - I’m not even looking at the yards against total (ranked 30th) because the run defense is good enough to force a lot of passing (405 pass attempts against, most in the league.) Even taking that into account the yards per attempt is slightly above average - problem being that the perception is the pass defense is elite when it’s not. I think Bulger and Avery can do some things in this game and I’m taking St. Louis to cover.

1 martini
New York Giants at Arizona (+3.5) - There’s a lot you can say about the Giants season, but I think that all we need to focus on is their 5.3 yards per attempt on the ground - best in the league and that’s not even adjusting for opponent. What’s even more impressive is when you drop 207 rushing yards on an elite Ravens defense that hadn’t allowed more than 100 yards on the ground all season (and only 3 times in the previous season.) The Cardinals aren’t going to be able to stop that in the trenches, but they will be able to put some points on the board and pressure the Giants out of their run game if this plays out right for Buzzcut, Boldin, and Fitzgerald. This is as good as it gets in the NFL for passing, so much so that they don’t even consider running the ball - why bother when the QB completes 70% of his passes and 8.3 yards per attempt? Overall, New York is a better team - more balanced and better on defense, but I must take Arizona getting points at home, too much passing game for them to fall way out of it. Buzzcut turnovers could be an issue as in the Jets game.

New England at Miami (-2) - A little nervous about this game because the Dolphins aren’t going to surprise the Pats with the wildcat formation again. Plus, Cassel has improved since the last time and New England should be able to throw a little bit on the secondary. Still, I can’t help but notice that Miami has been as good as New England this year, have already beat them soundly on the road, and are only laying 2 points at home. If the Dolphins were starting a green QB I’d look for Belichick to blow the wildcat up, but even if he does that the Dolphins can go to a traditional offense and win straight up too. All told, they’ll have success lining up Brown or Pennington under center, and I’m taking Miami to sweep the series and take a major step forward in their playoff push.

Buffalo at Kansas City (+3) - I told you guys Berman would make a laughing stock of the BUF-CLE pregame show last week and he did, even dragging poor Jim Kelly into it. Some things you wish would go away just won’t. Like herpes. Yes, Chris Berman’s coverage of the Buffalo Bills is like having herpes, that’s exactly how I feel. I also told you that featuring Beast Mode was the path to great success against Cleveland, and that Jauron would screw it up which he did by trying to run the offense through Trent Edwards, who I shall now refer to as “Bambi” because that deer is caught in headlights. The new look Chiefs are rallying behind Tyler Thigpen and the rootin’-tootin’ pistol formation, if by “rallying” we mean losing by less than 14 - which I think is fair for this team. Once again we present an interesting challenge to the Buffalo coaching staff - will you or will you not run the hell out of the ball against a Chiefs defense that gives it up to the tune of 5.1 yards per carry? Let’s just say I’m not confident, take Kansas City.

Washington at Seattle (+3.5) - I’m taking Seattle after putting the Redskins on probation this week for allowing Martellus Bennett to beat them in a 5-martini game. The Seahawks have to be able to win a game at home against a team other than the Rams, right? Guys?

Philadelphia at Baltimore (-1) - The Eagles have a +71 point differential, third in the league behind the Giants (+122) and Titans (+113). It’s difficult to express in words how disappointing this team plays, and for those of you who want to claim their points scored number has gotten fat off of bad opponents, go check the box scores and then continue breathing through your mouths. If not convinced, take my word for it that Philly SHOULD be a good team, or at least they’ve played well enough at times to masquerade as a good team. But that’s no reason to give them a pass for what they really are - a thoroughly mismanaged group of scheme players with a quarterback that takes until sometime in the second quarter to figure out how to complete a pass. The Ravens are still starting a rookie QB but Blue Hens shouldn’t need to do much but avoid getting cute, the Ravens have enough horses to ram it down Philly’s throat and that should be enough. I’m taking Baltimore to play it conservative and wait for the Eagles to hand this game over via turnovers or a series of 3-and-out induced field position losses.

New York Jets at Tennessee (-5) - All aboard the Jets bandwagon! Now that New York has taken a one game lead in the decidedly mediocre AFC East, it seems like it’s time to anoint them as the next big thing and ride on into the super bowl. Well, this week the Jets will feel the sting of reality slapping them in the face. As I outlined last week, they have literally not played anybody worth discussing, except perhaps the Arizona Cardinals. That’s not the fault of the Jets, but when you play in an average division, and your out of division schedule features teams from the barely professional AFC and NFC West, it’s easy to get overconfident about your 7-3 record. The Titans are better than the Jets in nearly every dimension and I expect New York will struggle to move the ball. If you can get a prop bet on Brett Favre turning the ball over 2 or more times, take it. Although I am liking Leon Washington’s chances for some excellent returns in this game, I must take Tennessee at home to cover this spread and cool off all of the “Jets are a contender” talk.

Houston at Cleveland (-3) - This is why gambling is so popular. There is no reason to even discuss this game between a team of also-rans starting their backup QBs in November. But for the record, Ohio is a lot colder than Texas this time of year, so gimme Cleveland.

Oakland at Denver (-9.5) - It’s too bad Lane Kiffin isn’t still coaching the Raiders, because attempting a 70 yard field goal in Mile High isn’t completely looney. Mostly looney, but at least the thin air gives you a reasonable excuse. Anyway, every week we have one of these games where a team with no defense is laying a ton of points, and every week I clean up on this nonsense. With that in mind, I’ll take Oakland.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-10.5) - The Bengals look like they got a little frisky last weekend in forcing a tie with the Eagles, but just to point out how unlucky they’ve been this year - Shayne Graham’s miss at the end of overtime was the first FG missed against the Eagles all season. When your bad luck trumps that kind of bad luck, you’re having a bad season. Now, lest you think Cincy is showing some signs of life, keep in mind that the only thing that kept them in the game was a colossally dumb game plan by Andy Reid to throw the ball 58 times in swirling wind, coupled with a 4 turnover day in the worst game of Donovan McNabb’s career. Oh, and one of those turnovers was recovered at the Eagles’ one yard line. This week brings these cats to steeltown, where the coach understands the concept of offensive balance, meaning the QB probably won’t get the chance to turn the ball over four times. Oh, and the Steelers achilles heel - pass protection? Not a problem since the Bengals have only recorded 11 sacks all year! Take Pittsburgh to crush these fools for the state of Pennsylvania.

Minnesota at Jacksonville (-2) - I’m trying to decide the funniest thing about Troy Williamson calling out Brad Childress. Probably the fact that Williamson had a forum to discuss this before a game in which he won’t even be playing, even though he’s had this game “circled on his schedule.” I could go the easy way and follow Jared Allen’s advice of getting behind whoever has “a kickass mustache” but seeing as said mustache is attached to the face of a terribly overmatched head coach, I’m taking Jacksonville.

Rotgut Roundup
Tampa Bay at Detroit (+8.5) - I have no idea how this game is going to turn out - the Lions are pitiful but have been randomly keeping games close enough to earn some respect against the spread. I don’t know if the Lions who like to cover are going to show up this week, but I do know that Warrick Dunn and Jeff Garcia are the starting backfield for the Bucs, which means two things: 1) this game will be downright unwatchable, and 2) I’m taking Detroit.

Carolina at Atlanta (-1.5) - When I first heard the “Matty Ice” nickname for Matt Ryan, I immediately thought oh hell no. It sounds dumb, just bleeping ridiculous. Matty Ice? Who is the pipe that decided on Matty Ice? “Yo, bro, throw me one of them Matty Ices!” Ryan and his college buddies were likely drinking Natural Ice while playing Tecmo bowl and twisted “Natty Ice” into “Matty Ice” in a drunken stupor. Now I have to read BS stories about how the name is because “he’s so cool on the field.” Who are the …BZZZT… morons that fall for this jackassery? With only one letter between “Matty” and “Natty,” I think we know this crap originated at a frat party, not on the bleeping sidelines. I’m taking Carolina to beat the nonsense out of this kid.

As my one time lady-love and Sands Ballroom Showgirl Rhoda Eckenstein (she was beautiful, despite the rough sounding name) once told a protégé of hers, “Girl, you gotta trim that thing!” Never mind what it was that needed trimming, use your imagination…But that is good advice no matter what. In this time of economic turmoil and personal sacrifice, running leaner and smarter is a necessity.

Of course, it is also the time of year for trimming. Trimming the turkey, trimming the tree and – trimming your roster for your playoff push. If you’re a loyal reader then you’re in the playoff hunt; you must be – you’re…BZZZT…bleeping smart. You’re also probably bleeping rich from my picks against the spread, but I bleeping digress.

Speaking of digress, I need to vent on the offerings for fantasy football owners on TV. I have watched a few different shows on a couple different networks, ESPN (of course) and the Comcast Sports Network. Let me say this – I am a fan of CSN, they actually cover regional sports in a responsible, mostly even handed way. ESPN…well that’s another story. The fantasy football offerings are OK, but formulaic, as is all TV of course. The season for fantasy football changes though. There are four parts to any fantasy football season:

-Pre Draft and Draft – Preparing for the draft (or auction of course), and draft strategy. This is a number of months leading up to a single point in time for owners. Pre draft time is characterized sifting through dozens of draft listings (you use them – bleeping admit it), putting together your rankings/values; and settling on a strategy.

-Early – mid season – this is the longest part of the fantasy season , and the part of the season we are just now leaving. This lasts from immediately after the draft to week 11 or 12. During this part of the season owners sift through their draft day disappointments, work through injuries and search for deeper sleepers using tools like the handy …BZT…dandy Confidence Index.

-Pre-playoffs – We’ll talk about what you need to do over the next couple of posts…

-Playoffs – Put your best players on the field, and hold on!!

Some article writers realize that what an owner needs changes as we go through these sub-seasons. Sadly, most writers don’t and stick to THEIR formulas. Except for the predictable pre-draft specials (which can be helpful), however, the fantasy shows stick to the formulas decided upon last Spring and don’t change to suit the true needs of the owner. The shows are bad enough, dumbed down and obvious. Once you get past the major early season injuries and sleepers that announce themselves in huge ways and let’s face it – most media is 2-3 weeks late on most sleepers – too long in a fantasy season. Sorry to vent, but anything that insults my intelligence so obviously really grinds my flux capacitor! These shows really are a waste of time for a savvy owner such as yourself…

With that said, let’s go forward…What do YOU need to do to be playoff ready? We’ll break down quick, easily implemented rules of thumb for each position.

First off – one rule of thumb for QB, RB, WR and TE – if you are still allowed to trade (and most leagues have closed off trading by now, some haven’t however) – trade to improve a key position. If you think you can make a run at the playoffs – pull the trigger, make it happen. Trade future picks, auction dollars, whatever – getting to the playoffs is most of the battle. Anything can happen once in, now is not the time to mince around, close up your obvious holes and be creative in doing so.

For the rest of these posts, however, I will assume that you can not trade this late in the season, and only have free agents available.

QB – Not much you can do here. All the sleepers are likely accounted for. The one guy who may be out there is Tyler Thigpen, he’s been impressive and has a couple good WRs in Dwayne Bowe (.973 – 53.5 – 647.8) and Mark Bradley (.940 – 20.68 – 235.0); so if he’s out there, go get him and count yourself lucky he’s still out there. Other than that, if you have a QB with a lingering injury, and he’s your #2 or #3 – drop him and get someone who doesn’t have injury concerns. If your #1 is hurting, play the matchups with him and your backups; your backups may outperform your #1 if he plays bad pass defenses down the stretch.

RB – Back up your studs. Simple – if Frank Gore is your #1 guy grab his main backup. If it’s Brian Westbrook, grab Buckhalter (he’s probably already gone anyway). Drop that guy you’ve held onto all season long hoping he’d bust out of his shell – Ahman Green ain’t gonna do it for you, face the bleeping music. It stinks to cut bait on your favorite sleepers, I know – but ya gotta do what you gotta do. Drop your injured RBS too – sorry about Ernest Graham, but he’s doing you no good sucking air on your bench.

OK, nothing earth shattering so far – but the key here is to make your roster moves NOW. Don’t wait another week. Have a plan and execute it quickly. Don’t let week 13 begin without your playoff roster set.

I’ll be back with my thoughts on the rest of the roster spots before the rest of the week 12 games finish…

Showgirls and Gin my friends, Showgirls and…BZZZT…gin.

Here it is kids. I’ll be back soon with some thoughts on maintaining your rosters down the final stretch!

I will have the rest up tomorrow, but for now enjoy this 1 martini pick.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-10.5) - The Bengals look like they got a little frisky last weekend in forcing a tie with the Eagles, but just to point out how unlucky they’ve been this year - Shayne Graham’s miss at the end of overtime was the first FG missed against the Eagles all season.  When your bad luck trumps that kind of bad luck, you’re having a bad season.  Now, lest you think Cincy is showing some signs of life, keep in mind that the only thing that kept them in the game was a colossally dumb game plan by Andy Reid to throw the ball 58 times in swirling wind, coupled with a 4 turnover day in the worst game of Donovan McNabb’s career.  Oh, and one of those turnovers was recovered at the Eagles’ one yard line.  This week brings these cats to steeltown, where the coach understands the concept of offensive balance, meaning the QB probably won’t get the chance to turn the ball over four times.  Oh, and the Steelers achilles heel - pass protection?  Not a problem since the Bengals have only recorded 11 sacks all year!  Take Pittsburgh to crush these fools for the state of Pennsylvania.

I usually post them in the Fantasy Sharks Forums but I’ll also put them here this week.  Games at the top are the best, remember these are straight up.  I’ll have the picks ATS on Friday, excepting the Thursday night game which will come tomorrow evening.

PIT
DEN
TB
TEN
CHI
MIA
CLE
DAL
JAC
GB
BAL
WAS
ATL
IND
BUF
NYG

I feel like I’m in a coma with these 50% weeks. Treading water ain’t no fun, and but it’s better than taking on water by dropping a 5-martini game.

Last week: 8-8 (50%)
Season: 88-67 (56.8%)
5 martini picks: 3-2 (60%)
4 martini picks: 4-3 (57%)
3 martini picks: 8-3 (73%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Carolina = WIN

5 martinis
Dallas at Washington (+1.5) - LOSS - Tony Romo didn’t look quite right but Marion Barber played Godzilla to the Redskins’ Tokyo. Barber led the Cowboys in rushing, receiving, and muscle-flexing. The Redskins played OK and protected the ball, but could not get to Romo and could not finish.

4 martinis
None

3 martinis
None

2 martinis
New York Jets at New England (-3) - WIN - The type of win the media plays up too much so we can expect a bit too much Jets in our point spreads in the coming weeks. The Patriots are mediocre and that showed up during the game, just because a Tom Brady-led Pats team dominated the Jets for years doesn’t mean a thing to us. The Jets are living the AFC East life.

1 martini
St. Louis at San Francisco (-6) - WIN - Yay Singletary! Boo Haslett. Rams without Steven Jackson = unwatchable.

New Orleans at Kansas City (+5.5) - LOSS - Oh this one was so close. I cannot believe the transformation of Tyler Thigpen, but I am going to cringe while watching the Chiefs make too much of this run in the off season and fail to draft a real QB.

Cleveland at Buffalo (-5) - WIN - Another damn wide right. It hurts to watch 5-1 turn into 5-5 but Trent Edwards looks downright remedial back there. It’s the bleeping Browns pal! I told you Jauron and the Bills would screw this up.

Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-3.5) - WIN - It’s a shame Adrian Peterson is being wasted in Minnesota. He’s fantastic, but you need a little bit of QB play to compete.

Baltimore at New York Giants (-6.5) - LOSS - The Ravens run defense hasn’t been treated that poorly in years. New York’s offensive line is just playing out of their minds right now.

Denver at Atlanta (-6) - LOSS - Has anyone else noted the inconsistency from Jay Cutler? I hope he puts it together soon, because the Broncos won’t win many of these 24-20 games.

San Diego at Pittsburgh (-5) - SHOULD HAVE BEEN A WIN - One of the classic gambling kicks in the junk of all time. If this were a recommended play I’d be a little more disappointed but you can’t expect much down here just a hair from being in the rotgut roundup.

Rotgut Roundup
Arizona at Seattle (+3) - LOSS - Buzzcut stays on a roll and dissects the lame Seahawks secondary. I really thought Hasselbeck would spark the offense a bit and keep it close at home but it appears the ship has sailed on this season in Seattle. Too bad for Admiral Holmgren.

Houston at Indianapolis (-8.5) - WIN - Manning is looking back to full form, but the defense is still a problem. Sage Rosenfels is killing fantasy teams by bringing down Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels.

Chicago at Green Bay (-4) - WIN - Any team from the NFC North can start to suck at any time, just be patient.

Philadelphia at Cincinnati (+9) - LOSS - In capping this game, I gave Andy Reid a hard time for his role in creating the disappointment that is the Philadelphia Eagles. I wrote: “Even Reid can’t screw up a game against the Bengals, right? Right?” Wrong.

Detroit at Carolina (-14) - WIN - That’s right Detroit, you just keep these games close.

Oakland at Miami (-10.5) - WIN - The Dolphins took this one down to the wire, which will happen when you give Ronnie Brown 16 carries and Ricky Williams 13 carries. On 3 more carries, Brown gained 52 more yards - and it wasn’t like he ripped a long one to skew the results, Brown is just much better. But please, continue to fool around with Ricky back there, I’m loving these outrageous Miami point spreads.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (+3) - LOSS - The letdown you predicted looked good until Jeff Fisher unleashed the unstoppable Collins-Gage connection.