Archive for October, 2008

Translator note: The BetBot rarely advocates editorializing but has allowed me this public service announcement: Now that the world series is over, can we stop the ridiculous “drinkability” campaign coming from Bud Light? I was forced to sample the product last night at a hockey game when the Miller Lite guy kept dodging my section - and I am paying for this mistake today. What they don’t tell you about the “drinkable” Bud Light is that it gnaws at your guts like termites on wood. Look, it was a hockey game, I had a couple “unsanctioned” light beers, and today I feel like someone shot a cannonball into my stomach.

Week 8 was very nice to us, with 9 wins overall, although we dropped a 3-martini game which wasn’t expected. Now that we’ve seen half a season we have a good bit of information about each team, which means I am fully aware of which former QB has been texting which GMs, and which 400 pound linemen are taking pills “to lose weight” (rather than mask the steroids they’re taking). This is the kind of insider information that will tilt a game that otherwise looks like a fair matchup. Rest assured that I’m on the situation …BZZT… trust me.

Last week: 9-3 (75%)
Season: 65-46 (58.6%)
5 martini picks: 3-1 (75%)
4 martini picks: 3-2 (60%)
3 martini picks: 7-3 (70%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Chicago

5 martinis
None

4 martinis
Baltimore at Cleveland (-1.5) - The Ravens will be able to run on a Browns defense giving up almost 5 yards a clip, and that will take the pressure off Joe Flacco and allow him to use the play action to get some plays downfield. I expect a little Anderson-Edwards fun downfield on the sketchy Ravens secondary, but that’s not something consistent enough for me to get behind with any confidence. Take Baltimore and the points.

3 martinis
None

2 martinis
Miami at Denver (-3) - This is a good week to lean on the wildcat for Ronnie Brown - the Fins brutal secondary won’t be able to hold down the Broncos passing attack and even though Chad Pennington has been a lot better than anyone thought entering the season, the best course of action will be to control the clock and limit Denver’s offensive possessions. Interesting game for two faux playoff teams - I say that because neither is very good but because of either schedule or divisional weakness they might sneak in. I’m loathe to go against Denver in the thin air, but I’m taking Miami to keep it close and the points will help us.

Jacksonville at Cincinnati (+7.5) - I struggled with this game for some time. The Bengals are awful, but it’s not like the Jaguars are so great and last week they lost to the bleeping Browns. Garrard should make some magic happen, and he’s finally starting to deliver some fantasy points (long after he’s been dropped from most rosters of course) but at home, with more than a TD in points to help them, I’m counting on Cincinnati to cover this spread.

1 martini
Arizona at St. Louis (+3) - Kurt Warner returns to the scene of his greatest crimes riding a wave of fantasy love - the only week he’s thrown fewer than 2 TDs has been week 1. It says something about the NFL sportswriters that Warner is getting real MVP looks despite the fact that he’s also a turnover machine - 6 INTs and 6 Fumbles adds up to almost 2 miscues a game, which is a sure fire way to the loss column - a la the Jets game. Still - a 70% completion percentage? He’s going to light up the Rams and I’m taking Arizona to cover on the road as a result.

Dallas at New York Giants (-8.5) - The Giants are having a nice run of luck to start the season - not only did they get the easy games on their schedule early in the season, what originally looked like a tough game for them this week is coming up pretty easy since Tony Romo broke his pinky and Jason Witten broke a rib. I don’t see either of them playing this week, and with the way the offensive line has looked without Romo, the Giants are going to dial up their defensive line and try to take out whichever of Johnson/Bollinger that Wade Phillips decides to throw to the wolves this week. I’m taking New York to win and cover this hobbled Cowboys lineup.

Tampa Bay at Kansas City (+8.5) - Herm Edwards announced that the Chiefs are going to start running the spread offense. Now. Starting in week 9. Why not just lobby for the first pick and save your players some pain? This Chiefs team is a joke, starting from the top down. Gimme Tampa Bay.

Pittsburgh at Washington (-2) - Let me be brief, I’m taking Washington. I refuse to acknowledge a Steelers team playing on the road with that brutal offensive line. The Redskins won’t be able to exploit it like the Giants did last week, but I’m just playing the odds that Roethlisberger is more than likely to get sack-fumbled and that’s enough to turn a game that is going to be close.

Rotgut
Atlanta at Oakland (+3) - The Raiders will have their hands full with the stout Atlanta running game, but really the game plan for Oakland needs to be putting Nnamdi Asomugha on Roddy White and taking away their only passing threat. Letting White beat the other loudmouth corner about the head and neck is going to border on the criminal. I’m taking Oakland because putting Matt Ryan in the terrordome 3000 miles from home, and laying a field goal in the process, is not something I’m getting behind.

Philadelphia at Seattle (+6.5) - The Phillies won the world series, and today there is a huge parade in Philadelphia to celebrate. It was nice for the baseball team to win a championship and distract the sports radio hounds from focusing on the sloppy and inconsistent play by the Eagles, but the heat will be on come Monday. A loss to an awful Seattle team missing its QB and best defensive lineman is certainly the type of thing the Eagles would do, and will be just the thing to turn a parade into a full blown riot. So I’m taking Philadelphia out of civic responsibility.

Houston at Minnesota (-4.5) - Both of the Vikings’ massive defensive tackles Kevin and Pat Williams got busted for taking a diuretic, which I’m hearing they used in order to keep their weight under control for contract reasons. First, let me say that it’s not a good idea to control your weight using a banned substance that is a well known masking agent. Second, that weight control thing ain’t working - you guys are friggin’ huge. They’ll be in the game this weekend but I’m still taking Houston to exploit the weak Minny pass defense. Oh, and why do news reports constantly state that the Williams’ aren’t related? No …BZT… kidding geniuses. If they were related you would have introduced them as brothers or cousins, or whatever, just like we do with the Williams sisters. See how that just worked?

New York Jets at Buffalo (-5.5) - Is there any question that Brett Favre is actively hurting the Jets? To think that Chad Pennington is having such a great season in Miami with less expensive talent says a lot about the relative strength of the talent evaluators in each front office. It’s not fair to compare anyone to Bill Parcells, who is clearly the best personnel evaluator of his time, but looking at the Jets roster and salary cap position, this is a team that needs to win now but really isn’t going to. They’ll give the Bills a bit of a fight this week but I’m taking New York with an eye for the 5.5 points more than anything else - Buffalo is a decent team but not enough to handle that line in a division game.

New England at Indianapolis (-5.5) - Both of these teams are shells of previous years, and the only reason the Patriots don’t have the same woeful record as the Colts is that New England’s schedule is an absolute gift. They literally have not played a great team yet. Peyton Manning may be having an off year, but he’s licking his chops at the ridiculous Patriots secondary at home, so I’m taking Indianapolis to win and win big. Who’s to stop them?

Detroit at Chicago (-13) - This spread is just about exactly where it should be, I recommend staying away. The Lions are awful in all facets of the game and only a miracle will produce a win on the road against a tough divisional opponent in Chicago. But since it’s Halloween, I’m taking Detroit to give the Bears a scare. Har har.

Green Bay at Tennessee (-5.5) - Now, here’s a spread that is right on point. GO WITH YOUR GUT if you must play this one, and my gut tells me Tennessee is good enough to cover at home. The only thing I will guarantee is that the Titans run offense is going to gash a surprisingly lame Packers run D (4.9 yards per rush). Collins may only need to throw the ball 20 times all game.

A couple of pushes this week, which is a pretty good day to be making lines. We bounced back from a poor showing in week 7 to nail 9 picks this week, which looks even better considering only 12 games produced a winner.

This week: 9-3 (75%)
Season: 65-46 (58.6%)
5 martini picks: 3-1 (75%)
4 martini picks: 3-2 (60%)
3 martini picks: 7-3 (70%)

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: New York Jets = WIN (Barely)

5 martinis
None

4 martinis
None

3 martinis
Miami (+1.5) over Buffalo - WIN - One thing you can say about the new regime in Miami is that they certainly got Joey Porter to play this year. Plus Chad Pennington has been showing some life - the Dolphins season has to be considered a success already with the talent level the new staff inherited. Now if only they would quit fooling around with Ricky Williams (7 carries, 16 yards.) Same problem in Buffalo, where Fred Jackson got 10 carries in committee work with Marshawn Lynch, who only got 3 more rushes despite gaining 20 more yards than Jackson. There’s no use in sharing the workload if one back is so much worse than the other. This RBBC craze in the NFL is out of hand, it’s simply bad management of resources.

Cincinnati over Houston (-9.5) - LOSS - Honestly, I didn’t think the Texans had it in them. It’s worth noting that their 3-4 record is the same as division rivals Indy and Jacksonville, although again at 3-4 it’s more a statement about Indy and Jacksonville. Andre Johnson had another amazing day (11-143) but for some reason all the TDs went elsewhere this week. Still, double digit catches for triple digit yards again? Nice.

2 martinis
Baltimore (-7) over Oakland - WIN - Troy Smith to Joe Flacco was a nice surprise, but did we need to waste that play against the Raiders? No, we didn’t.

New Orleans (+3) over San Diego - WIN - Neither of these teams can play defense, which means both Brees and Rivers are fantasy QBs to own down the stretch. It’s worth noting that Rivers has a nice bunch of AFC West schedule in front of him including two Kansas City games, although the Week 16 matchup against Tampa Bay won’t help your fantasy playoffs.

1 martini
Tampa Bay over Dallas (-2) - LOSS - Complete egg-laying by Jeff Garcia and the Bucs offense. The Cowboys defense has been laying down for just about everyone this season, and the entire secondary is injured. Or maybe it was the brilliant Wade Phillips play calling?

Arizona over Carolina (-4) - PUSH - The Cardinals can score, that much we know. If only they could have figured out how to cover Steve Smith. Or tackle him.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-4) - WIN - Another RBBC joke. Chris Johnson: 19 carries, 77 yards. LenDale White: 10 carries, 13 yards. Even considering that White had to try a few times to punch it in from short distance, what reason do we have to believe Johnson couldn’t do the same? Across the field, the Colts offense got real old real quick, and their young defense isn’t very good. They really don’t look like contenders.

Cleveland over Jacksonville (-7) - WIN - Braylon Edwards: 8 targets, 2 catches, 64 yards. A #1 WR does not post like a speed merchant, deep threat only WR. Some of the problem is Derek Anderson’s inaccuracy but it’s tough to make a case for Edwards as a real threat if he only catches 25% of balls thrown to him.

Kansas City over New York Jets (-13.5) - WIN - Favre threw 3 picks and the Jets still won by 4, which tells you all you need to know about how bad the Chiefs are playing and also how bad this line was.

Seattle over San Francisco (-5) - WIN - Let me get this straight. Your team gets blown out 34-13 at home against a 1-5 (now 2-5) Seattle team that has looked terrible all season, but you get nothing but praise after the game because you sent Vernon Davis to the locker room with 15 minutes to go in the game and then rambled on in the post-game press conference? Must be good to be Mike Singletary. This tells you all you need to know about sportswriters - they praise the people that create the best story, not the people that help a team win. Me? All I care about is showgirls and gin, this other stuff is just my hobby. On the other hand, I am thoroughly enjoying the Singletary experience.

New York Giants over Pittsburgh (-3) - WIN - The Steelers OL is in shambles - this is something to keep in mind anytime they are favorites against a team with a tough front seven on defense.

New England (-7.5) over St. Louis - LOSS - We get nipped by half a point in a game that was pretty close (at least in score, I have not watched any of it yet.) Pretty good showing for the Rams on the road, they aren’t getting blown out anymore.

Rotgut
Philadelphia (-9) over Atlanta - WIN - It wasn’t easy, as Philadelphia needed a badly officiated call on a (non) muffed punt to get possession with 2 minutes and change left in the game for Westbrook’s TD run that iced it. Mike Smith couldn’t challenge because he used all his timeouts (tee hee.) This Eagles team has a power problem - their front four cannot generate a pass rush and their offensive line can’t get a one yard push when they need it - they could have sealed this game with a late goal line TD where they had to settle for a field goal, or also with a later 3rd and 1 conversion right before the aforementioned punt. Success on either of those plays would have probably won the game. Also worth noting that Trent Cole was penalized 15 yards for unnecessary roughness on a safe and legal hit on Matt Ryan that will go down as the worst personal foul of the season. Ryan still had the ball in his hands when Cole hit him, and Cole didn’t hit Ryan’s head or drive him into the turf. Just a complete blunder by the referee.

Washington over Detroit (+8) - PUSH - Don’t let the close score fool you - the Skins dominated this game statistically and only some inefficiency in Detroit territory kept this one from turning into a blowout. Not every opponent will be as lucky as the Lions (who still lost but at least didn’t get embarassed.) One problem is Jason Campbell’s new talent of turning the ball over at the most inopportune times - Washington fans hope he forgets how to do this soon.

Here it is for this week…What a bleeping awful season Colston is having…ugh!

Here it is folks…I will be back with my usuals thoughts and musings on the Index.

The notes are going to be quick this week kids.  I have a major event this weekend that requires my time for planning, plus as you can see below there is really only one worthy game this week.  I had a long diatribe about the ridiculous “drinkability” ad blitz going on from Budweiser, which has really started to annoy me.  Not only is it a dumb concept, it’s constantly on.  I will only say this - all light beers are “drinkable” because they are 99% water.  Just pick the cheapest one, i.e. the brand that doesn’t spend a fortune on advertising in prime time sports events.  If you can tell the difference between a $11 case of Natural Light and a $18 case of Bud Light, let me know.  Anheuser-Busch owns both of them so what do you care?

This week’s Confidence Index has a couple surprises in it, one is how effective Devin Hester is becoming as a WR…

Devin Hester (1.37 – 21.93 – 264.57) – This guy is not really a deeper sleeper, but he’s still available in 46% of cbssportsline leagues. Now these ownership stats are dubious at…BZZZT…but Hester is still

Genius...and thankfully not a game show host named Harry Douglas

available in too many leagues. Hester gets better and better each week. This guy could be a WR3 for most teams, grab him, start him – thank me later.

Harry Douglas (1.11 – 12.16 – 163.67) – I once cautioned a young Steve Martin that I thought he needed to drop the stand up schtick and become a game show host. I also suggested a new name, Harry Douglas. One set of bunny ears and song about the greatest pop culture…BZZT…phenomena of the late 70s later – BAM!! Huge sensation!! I was wrong about Steve’s career (we’re still good friends of course), but I like this Douglas kid in Dynasty leagues. He’s a first year guy like Matt Ryan and is developing some chemistry with the kid. His speed obviously caught the eye of the coaches in Atlanta as he has a couple end around runs already this season. This kid should be the third WR on the field when the Falcons go into a 3 WR set; he will get his chances.

Demetrius Williams (.97 – 11.68 – 107.11) – One of the few bright spots in the loss to the Cots…OK, the only bright spot quite frankly. Demetrius Williams made the most of a bad situation by coming out as a threat for the Ravens. He didn’t have any big gainers, but early in the game the Colts could play a bit more conservatively and limit big play opportunities. This kid showed some moxy and should be a bigger part of Baltimore game plans as the year progresses.

A lot of people have been asking me how Tony Romo broke his pinky. Was I involved?

Sadly, yes…What follows is a brief transcript of my Sunday night altercation with Romo (I was in Phoenix for a benefit concert).

Tony Romo: Damn you Betbot, did you bang Jessica?

Yours Truly: Tony, ‘bang’ is such a vulgar term. I prefer ‘Session of Sweet’…I would use it like this “Damn you Betbot did you have a session…”

TR: Dammit man!

YT: A gentleman never…BZT… tells.

TR: That’s it tin man, you’re going down!

YT: Tony, what’s done is done, this happened while you and Jessica were having problems. Our sessions of sweet were magical, but we are now through!

TR: So you did! Steel punk!

YT: Oops, did I let the cat out of the bag?

TR: Beeetttbooottt!

As you can imagine, he then punched me, breaking his pinky. I hate being a factor in this way, but Mr. Romo really needs to get some anger management training. He also needs to realize that Grade 38 titanium beats skin and bone any day.

I can neither confirm nor deny any Sessions of Sweet which may have happened...BZT...in the past

Here’s the Confidence Index, I’ll be back with some metallic wisdom…

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