5 martinis
None

4 martinis
None

3 martinis
Washington (+11) over Dallas - WIN - Dallas has 2 problems at the moment, and this could get very profitable.  First, their defense is overrated.  Second, something got into crazy Terrell Owens, who was seen pouting on the sidelines during the game and then whining about his touches after.  Of those problems, let’s say that I’m not worried about the defense.  There is simply no accounting for having a lunatic in your locker room.

Baltimore (+5.5) over Pittsburgh - WIN - As I said, until the Steelers show the ability to protect Ben Roethlisberger, they are going to be in a dogfight every week.  The old men say you can’t handicap turnovers, but you can determine which teams will pressure the QB and statistically, pressured QBs turn the ball over.

2 martinis
Kansas City (+9.5) over Denver - WIN - Larry Johnson is the latest offense (yes, he’s the KC offense) to gash the Broncos, who have significant talent issues on defense.  Turning the ball over 4 times won’t help the cause, but that’s not an excuse against a bad, bad Chiefs squad.

Oakland (+7.5) over San Diego - LOSS - The Raiders were up 15-0 at one point but suck enough to let the Chargers blow right by them.  A late LT touchdown covered the spread even though this looked like a good pick for most of the game.  Sebastian Janikowski’s missed 76 yard field goal was funny to everyone except his fantasy owners who got docked for a missed FG attempt.  That kind of amateur move is enough reason to fire Lane Kiffin, I’ll call Al Davis this afternoon and make it happen.  You won’t get away with this Kid Kiffin!

Atlanta (+7) over Carolina - LOSS - I really figured Michael Turner’s ass would make the difference.  Carolina’s defense is not getting enough pressure on the QB, whither Julius Peppers?

1 martini
San Francisco (+5.5) over New Orleans - LOSS - I feel like Lex Luther upon discovering Otisburgh.  Lance Moore?!  Lance Moore?!

Arizona (+1.5) over New York Jets - LOSS - I reluctantly admit The Brett Favre had a great day, at the same time as his replacement in Green Bay got hurt (again) in a loss to the Buccaneers.  That still doesn’t make me want to root for the selfish jerk, even though I am partial to that J-E-T-S cheer.

Cincinnati (-3.5) over Cleveland - LOSS - Well, I said that Carson Palmer wouldn’t let the team go 0-4, which is still technically true.  Braylon Edwards continues his early season run at fantasy bust of the year - if you can’t manage to post against the lousy Bengals secondary, consider the season over.  Sure he scored, but only a handful of receptions again.  I can’t see how he’s in anyone’s starting lineup when Lance Moore is available.

Rotgut
Houston (+7.5) over Jacksonville - WIN - So you’re deciding between Fred Taylor or Maurice Jones-Drew against the lousy Texans rush defense, and who scores from 41 yards out?  “Mighty” Montell Owens!  It was a fake punt but that has got to hurt to see a rushing TD get burned like that.  Also, worth noting that since I called out Goldenlegs Garrard to start running and inject some life into this offense, he led the team in rushing on Sunday and the Jags won…

Philadelphia (-3) over Chicago - LOSS - …as opposed to Donovan McNabb, who’s so opposed to running he can’t even be bothered to sneak it in from the 1/2 yard line with the game on the line.  Hey Andy Reid, I don’t care if the QB has a bruised chest - there’s no use saving your stars for later in the season if you’ll just be playing out the string again.  You’d think last year would have taught you that lesson.  Or maybe the lesson about David Akers not being able to convert long field goals anymore.  No?  Well, enjoy last place then.

Green Bay (+1) over Tampa Bay - LOSS - Aaron Rodgers looked OK until he hurt his shoulder.  Unfortunately, the backup situation is …BZT… brutal.  The Packers went from the most durable QB in history to arguing the merits of Matt Flynn vs. Brian Brohm on sports radio.

Tennessee (-3) over Minnesota - WIN - Why are the Titans even messing with LenDale White (11 carries, 13 yards)?  Just give Chris Johnson (17 carries, 61 yards) those carries.  It’s this attention to detail that gets overlooked by teams when they are winning, but it will eventually make a difference.

Buffalo (-8) over St. Louis - WIN - I like Buffalo, but they have not played a top 20 team yet.  Trent Edwards is the latest in a long line of overhyped QBs who “just win” while posting decent enough stats against mediocre competition.  If he was the next “star” everyone made him out to be, he would have lit the Rams up on Sunday just like every other QB who has played St. Louis this season.  You can only play the teams on your schedule, and Buffalo has a tasty one remaining so they’ll be in the hunt.  But if the Bills rushing game continues to be mediocre, Edwards is eventually going to need a big game statistically.

The “Merrill Hoge is a Spin Button” pick ‘em play of the week: Buffalo Bills

5 martinis
No 5 martini games this week.

4 martinis
No 4 martini games this week.

3 martinis
Washington at Dallas (-11) - Dallas is blowing up on offense, but the lines they are commanding is making it tough to back them at the betting window.  In this case, I have full confidence they are better than the Redskins, especially in Texas, but 11 points for a rivalry game just smells funny.  I’m going to keep this short and not try to over-analyze because it’s this simple - it’s been a mixed bag for me betting against the Boys, but I’m going to keep hitting that as long as the lines are this elevated, gimme Washington.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (-5.5) - You know how QBs buy their offensive linemen gifts at the end of the year?  Like Dan Marino bought those isotoner gloves for his guys in Miami (hold back, deep pockets!)  Well, at the end of this year Ben Roethlisberger is probably going to get his O-Line a big middle finger.  Thanks for nothing, fatbags, I’m getting my ass kicked back here.  The Philly game last week was absolute mayhem, the NFL normally doesn’t see this level of mis-communication unless Al Davis calls Lane Kiffin into his office.  Big Ben is going to start the game but with the blueprint on the table courtesy of the Eagles, it’s not clear if Ben is going to survive - the Ravens are going to bring the house and they’re just as vicious as anyone in the league.  Unless the Steelers fix their O-Line communication and blocking schemes (not likely in 5 days) or commit to more max protect formations, this cannot end well.  I know fantasy players don’t want to hear this but Heath Miller needs to get involved as an H-Back and help the blitz pickup.  Until I see some pass protection from Pittsburgh I’m going to continue to go against them, including taking Baltimore this week.

2 martinis
Denver at Kansas City (+9.5) - My goodness, how bad are the Chiefs?  In a year where both St. Louis and Detroit are dropping turds all over the gridiron, it’s tough to say KC is the worst team in the league.  But damn, it’s close.  About the only thing you can say with any consistency is that Herm Edwards remains eminently quotable.  About fantasy king Jay Cutler, Herm said this week, “Here’s a guy they developed at quarterback. How about that? They developed a quarterback.”  Yeah Herm, how about that?  Seems like you could have been developing a QB of your own had you the ability to find one worth developing and the skill to coach him up.  I mean, instead of spending the last 2 seasons running Larry Johnson into the ground on teams …BZT… going nowhere.  Still, there are some things Herm can do, like motivate his troops - I think he’ll be able to get the Chiefs up for a home game against a 3-0 Broncos team.  More importantly, I think Denver’s sieve of a defense is not enough to withstand a 9.5 point spread on the road, so I’m taking Kansas City with a backdoor cover play.

San Diego at Oakland (+7.5) - The way San Diego looked against the Jets on Monday, you wonder how they’re only 1-2.  Well, they did play the Broncos, who can keep up with the Chargers on offense and are similarly inept on defense.  And they would have won that game if you discount the officiating blunder by Ed Hochuli.  But the Carolina comeback was straight out of the Norv Turner “uhhh” playbook.  And it’s because of those moments that I find it hard to back them laying a number this size on the road.  Look, I know the Raiders are mostly terrible.  The front office-coaching staff relationship is ridiculously poisoned.  The QB looks like he’s running a high school offense, and the defense hasn’t held up either.  But they can run the ball a bit, and play the pass a bit, and I think they’ll hang around in this one.  And if Norv Turner is the opposing coach, that’s all you need.  Take Oakland to just cover baby.

Atlanta at Carolina (-7) - You know what?  I’m tired of hearing the love for Jake Delhomme.  He looked terrible last week against a beatable Vikings pass defense, and that’s with Steve Smith back in the lineup.  Yes, the Panthers stubbornly tried to run the ball too much even though Minnesota can’t be run on.  But the passing game was the real problem - it’s like when Delhomme drops back he’s immediately looking for Smith.  Other QBs have their security blankets, but with, say Eli Manning, at least he closes his eyes and turns his head before heaving it up for Plaxico Burress.  Delhomme has got lover’s eyes for Smith, and that can’t work.  The Falcons have played some inspired ball this year, and yes I know playing Detroit and St. Louis will tend to make you look better than reality.  But Michael Turner still has that large amount of junk in the trunk, and if they go with the white pants that is sure to distract the Panthers defense.  You won’t have to worry about Julius Peppers getting distracted, since apparently he has completely disappeared.  I’m taking Turner’s bubble and Atlanta on the road in an upset special.

1 martini
San Francisco at New Orleans (-5.5) - The Saints are the NFC version of the Broncos and the Chargers.  All offense, no defense.  It’s impossible to get behind a team like that if they are laying a big number because you never can tell when they’ll give up a few late scores and bite you in the rear.  Jeremy Shockey is out so that means that Drew Brees will be throwing more flares to Reggie Bush - I’m interested to see if a good linebacker like Patrick Willis can put the clamps on Bush and limit the damage.  The 49ers offense has surprised a little bit, JT O’Sullivan has been pretty decent and of course Frank Gore is getting his.  If they get a decent wide receiver, or if Vernon Davis ever wakes up, they could be a threat in the weak NFC West.  I’ll take San Francisco here in what looks to be a shootout.

Arizona at New York Jets (-1.5) - The Jets offense is pretty terrible, but that message has been lost in all the “Favre-ness” going on.  They beat an awful Miami team with some absolute BS plays and then received a throttling at the hands of New England and San Diego.  Hey, but let’s make an excuse like “Favre doesn’t know the offense yet!”  Yeah, or maybe he’s just playing the same way he played in Green Bay the last few years, you know, before they surrounded him with the same teammates Aaron Rodgers is looking mighty nice with.  Look, can’t we just say he’s not that good?  Is it so hard to admit that Brett Favre is not a good QB anymore?  The Cardinals are better than the Jets, and there’s a good chance they’ll win this game outright, which raises the question of whether the Golden Boy will get criticized if the Jets go 1-3.  Take Arizona and love every minute of it.

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-3.5) - OH - IO!  Come Monday, somebody here is going to be 0-4 and dead in the water.  Since the Browns were so heavily touted before the season I’m banking on continuing to take it on the chin this weekend.  All those prime time games for a team with one good year since…the franchise returned to Cleveland?  Take that, spanky.  I’ve detailed the problems with Cleveland’s passing attack last week, but if you think marginal prospect Brady Quinn is the answer then it’s your own fault for tricking yourself.  Still, after starting the season 0-4 he’ll get his shot, worst case scenario is that the Browns will find out if he’s the next QB or if they have a long term problem on their hands.  Carson Palmer is too good to start this poorly, I’m taking Cincinnati and banking he can turn this thing around.

Rotgut
Houston at Jacksonville (-7.5) - I’m taking Houston because the Jaguars don’t have enough team to lay 7.5 points, not when Andre Johnson is more than capable as a skill position guy that can create some backdoor opportunities.  Plus, the Texans are already 0-2 and the city of Houston needs some good news.

Green Bay at Tampa Bay (-1) - The battle of the bays!  One of the most classic Tecmo Super Bowl matchups brought to life - but instead of Sharpe vs. Haddix we get Jennings vs. Barber.  Oh, and Aaron Rodgers is a lot better than Don Majkowski.  Take Green Bay and remember what I said earlier, punting is for the ladies.

Minnesota at Tennessee (-3) - Lots of defense and running in this one, neither passing game is anything to be proud of.  Then again, compared to Gus Frerotte even Kerry Collins looks like a superstar.  Still, the Titans can play the pass and the Vikings can’t.  And that’s good enough for me to get behind Tennessee.

Buffalo at St. Louis (+8) - The Rams are awful and I’m taking Buffalo.  No analysis needed.  Pray for Trent Green, and I am not joking.

Philadelphia at Chicago (+3) - I don’t think Brian Westbrook is going to play this weekend, and without him the Eagles offense is significantly worse.  Prepare for a lot of 5 yard slant passes followed by wide receivers hitting the deck.  You’ll think it’s 2003 again.  Still, Philly’s defense is strong enough to dominate Chicago’s running game, and if the next option is Kyle Orton making a play to win the game, I’m taking Philadelphia.  Oh, and if you really think Brandon Lloyd turned the corner in Chicago, you’re pretty dumb.  Let’s see him contribute to a Bears win, any moe can post if the defense knows you aren’t going to beat them.

5 martinis
Dallas at Green Bay (+3) - Interesting way to open the slate here, as the Cowboys once again suffer my wrath - this time against the Packers in Green Bay.  Note that the Packers are the only home dog on the schedule, owing both to the public’s fascination with the ‘Boys since everyone has them on the top of the power rankings and also a second consecutive prime time game.  Honestly, I don’t get it - sure, the offense is spectacular, but you didn’t notice the Philly defense traveling up and down the field?  Or the rampant penalties - I guess if you can’t use the horse collar, it’s time to switch to the face mask?  Well, that’s OK.  The Pack don’t have the star power of Dallas but they can win this game outright at Lambeau, which is why I’m taking Green Bay.  Anyone notice Wade Phillips jumping around on the sidelines during Felix Jones’ kickoff return TD on Monday?  You may have recoiled at the number of extra chins exposed by gravity.  Furthermore, way too exuberant there, tubby - this ain’t
Friday night lights, it’s professional football.

4 martinis
Cleveland at Baltimore (-2) - Let’s review the Browns passing attack through 2 games.  Derek Anderson has just passed “Groove is in the Heart” on the list of great one-hit wonders, next stop: “99 Luftballons.”  As I mentioned in my week 2 recap, Braylon Edwards is officially on bust watch, I recommend a full benching for Edwards across the board until he shows something other than a pair of stone hands that would make Fantastic Four’s Thing proud.  Donte Stallworth proves that his legs are made out of fluorescent lights and has Cleveland wondering what the hell everyone got so excited over.  Psst - he’s missing week 3.  Kellen Winslow has actually been effective working underneath and making some nice grabs, unfortunately the uninspired playcalling in Cleveland doesn’t let him fool anyone.  I mean, if you run on first and second downs, then thrown to Winslow for 6 yards on 3rd and 5 that’s all great, but at some point you have to get the ball downfield in the NFL.  What is it anyway with the Browns offense and unbalanced line runs on first down?  Romeo Crennel, who has looked like Art Shell for a long time, is now starting to coach like Art Shell.  The past two weeks have been a clinic on late game incompetance, from poor clock management to awful playcalling.  I don’t care what Al Michaels and John Madden say, kicking a field goal instead of going for it on 4th and 7, late in the 4th quarter, down by 7 points, is completely ridiculous unless you then onside kick.  The only reason they got the ball back at all after that bungle was because Willie Parker is a numbnut and ran out of bounds instead of icing the game.  Wow, that tired me out.  I have not mentioned them yet, but the general tone here should have tipped you off that I’m taking Baltimore.  Go Blue Hens.

3 martinis
Tampa Bay at Chicago (-3) - There will be no Jeff Garcia jokes this week, I have outlined his problems in past weeks and you don’t need to hear about it.  He’s done in Tampa Bay, which means if the Eagles lose this week, Philly talk radio will be clamoring to trade Donovan McNabb to the Bucs so Garcia can lead Philadelphia back to the playoffs.  And they claim to be intelligent football fans.  Anyway, let’s move on to the Brian Griese era, which should be about as uninspiring as the Jeff Garcia era, only 5 years younger and a lot less grizzled.  The Bears defense is pretty good but still cannot withstand the impact of Jake Delhomme’s magically repaired elbow, and the Bears are a little overrated thanks to a week 1 win over the Colts - which was unexpected but not entirely shocking now that we’ve seen Indy struggle two weeks in a row.  Speaking of the Bears-Colts game, has one 50-yard gallop through a gaping hole earned anyone as much hype as Matt Forte?  Take out that run, then look at his yards per carry this year and get back to me if you still think he’s elite (hint: 3.7 ypc = not elite).  Not entirely his fault since nobody fears Neckbeard Orton, so the Bears running game is going to get stacked on a lot and good defenses are going to shut them down.  That’s exactly what’s happening this week - take Tampa Bay.  P.S. Before I get flame mail, Forte is still good for fantasy - he’s getting 20+ carries a week, and opportunity is the the name of the game.

2 martinis
Kansas City at Atlanta (-6) - Us Fantasy players moan about committee backfields, but one look at recent RB overwork and it’s easy to see why NFL teams are tripping over themselves trying to limit carries.  When guys like Shaun Alexander and Larry Johnson can go from being unstoppable to being replacement level in a season or two, it goes a long way towards teaching NFL coaches and execs that their players are not made of titanium.  Though a few years under Herm Edwards may eventually lead to having titanium joints.  How is this goof still an NFL head coach?  Jamaal Charles, Kolby Smith, Christian Okoye, I don’t care who is getting the ball for the Chiefs - their line sucks, and their QB situation is messier than the back of Jules Winnfield’s car.  Next up is Tyler Thigpen, hailing from that well known football factory Coastal Carolina, this year’s claim to fame being that they raked in a small fortune to be Penn State’s punching bag 3 weeks ago.  They play in a conference called The Big South, which seems like a pretty arrogant name to me.  The conference is comprised entirely of teams from Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina - so they really should be called The Big Tobacco.  If you are going to claim the entire “South”, at least mix in a school from Alabama or Georgia or Mississippi.  Speaking of Georgia, you may have heard that Atlanta has a pro football team as well - and Thigpen will make his first start against those Falcons, who will happily present him with one of the worst pass defenses in the league.  This game is truly the stoppable force against the moveable object.  No way anybody should be getting 6 points here - I’m going with Kansas City - and it was THIS CLOSE to a 3 martini game.

Cincinnati at New York Giants (-13.5) - This line is absolutely wacky.  Yes, the Bengals look absolutely lost but the weather conditions were brutal last week - did you see the field goal posts waving their arms like they just didn’t care?  Heyy, hooo, heyy, hooo.  Then again, perhaps I have a blind spot because both the Bengals and the Giants have been burning me this year.  Cincinnati shouldn’t put up too much of a fight on defense, I’m not sure they have one player of note on that side of the ball (let me search the roster…nope, although there has been a Dhani Jones sighting - break out the air guitar!)  Now, you may say well Baltimore and Tennessee are two top defenses in the league, so give Cincy some benefit of the doubt - but last I checked the Giants were pretty darn good on D also.  Carson Palmer is going to be running for his life.  And speaking of Herm Edwards - where you at 85?  But 13.5 points are a ton for a professional game - I mean, Eli Manning has shown me enough fraidy cat antics in his career - remember the Minnesota game last year?  So I guess what I’m saying is that the Giants are much better than the Bengals, but not this much better, so I have to take Cincinnati.  I like New York as a teaser play if that’s your thing.  As a reminder, Gin is my thing.  And showgirls.  And those cinnamon buns you can get at the mall, I love those.

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-3) - The media loves to call this the battle for Pennsylvania.  But how come when Miami and Jacksonville play it’s not the battle for Florida - is it because Tampa would stand up and make a fuss?  Or if the Giants and Jets played and we called it the battle for New York, Ralph Wilson would start whining again?  I just can’t get behind the whole battle for Pennsylvania thing - first off, Philadelphia is a metropolitan, culturally and historically significant city and one of the largest in the country.  There is no “battle for Pennsylvania” - Philadelphia has already won that battle.  It’s not really worth arguing over - if Pittsburgh were a competitor in this hypothetical “battle”, wouldn’t you expect some more people to live there?  But let’s just take a culinary example - Philly has the cheesesteak and the soft pretzel, two classic American delights beloved around the country.  Pittsburgh has…a sandwich with french fries on it.  I mean, if the Primanti brothers were first grade children and invented this idea I would be happy for them, it shows the imagination of a 6 year old and should be rewarded as such.  But it’s not something you brag about - “Hey, check out this restaurant!  You can get fries on your sandwich!”  Or I can just go to McDonald’s and do it myself, chucko.  Anyway, Philadelphia is the better team in this game, especially on the lines where the Steelers will have difficulty containing the Eagles blitz and the Eagles 2nd ranked run defense will pose problems for traditional Steelers smash mouth football.  I like the Ben Roethlisberger-Heath Miller combo in this game since the Eagles defense cannot contain tight ends, their safeties and linebackers are not athletic enough in coverage.  I also think Troy Polamalu will be interesting to watch here, he’s the type of heady, active player in the secondary that gives Donovan McNabb fits.  But not enough to come within 3 points, take Philadelphia.

1 martini
Arizona at Washington (-3) - Kurt Warner is nice enough to help Anquan Boldin with his contract dispute, last week was like a big middle finger at Cardinals management.  Warner will be fine as long as he’s upright, and since the Redskins pass rush has gone missing I see no reason for trouble this week.  How is that Jason Taylor working out for you guys?  Jason Campbell, on the other hand, still has a lot of potential.  But let’s not get too carried away, he had a nice second half against a brutal Saints pass defense, he has not quite arrived yet.  You know, Arizona’s defense has been a bit frisky this year, I could see Campbell struggling again this week, and more confused looks from Jim Zorn.  Take Arizona, this game will go down to the wire and either team can win it.

Oakland at Buffalo (-9.5) - I am really struggling with this game.  Buffalo has looked good this year but not 9.5 point favorites good.  A lot of this game boils down to how well the Raiders can run the ball - the Bills have a good defense, better against the pass than the run but solid up the middle.  Oakland can pound the ball effectively, and the passing game is in shambles right now as JaMarcus Russell is raw and not likely to improve since Lane Kiffin has no incentive to do so.  I mean, how hard would you try to shape the future at your job if you knew the owner was about to give you the axe?  So realistically, I see a lot of running in this game, on both sides of the ball excepting some deep bombs to Lee Evans, who is going to be blanketed by Nmandi Asomugha anyway.  I’m taking Oakland to give the upstart Bills a bit of a scare here.

St. Louis at Seattle (-9.5) - If you’ve been waiting on Matt Hasselbeck to show up this season, here is the matchup you want!  Seattle hit the bat signal last week trying to cobble together a WR corps that can play at this level.  It’s too bad Batman only has washed up softies and alcoholics in his utility belt.  Even though Keary Colbert and Koren Robinson are pretty stiff, they’ll have a good chance against the players formerly known as “Rams secondary”.  You can’t call them defenders, it would be a slap in the face to players who actually defend.  How many wide open receivers are we going to see score on the Rams this year?  Last week the Rams ownership threatened that changes were coming if St. Louis didn’t start playing better - uh, where the hell was this 6 months ago?  Scott Linehan is not going to last the season, nor should he - his team rots.  Offensively if you can’t make something work with Steven Jackson you need to not only be fired, you need to be caned and banished from the league for a year.  And those of you who spent a top 3 pick for Jackson on your fantasy team, it’s time to pick up another hobby for the next 3 months.  This is one spread I am not afraid of - gimme Seattle.

Carolina at Minnesota (-3.5) - Now this is going to be an interesting game for John Fox.  He loves power running like I love Gin, and that’s exactly the thing the Vikings are good at stopping.  I see big things in this game for Steve Smith - first, because nobody runs on Minnesota, and second, because he’s got some atonin’ to do.  Still, it’s not like he stabbed Ken Lucas in the neck, so Smith still has a shot at the hall of fame.  Oh look, Adrian Peterson is hurt.  Still think he’s “All Day”?  How about a new nickname - “Questionable”?  Peterson is the most dynamic player in the league, but let’s not hold back - he wasn’t able to stay healthy in college, and he won’t be able to in the pros, although Brad Childress is going to ride him until he breaks.  And why not, that’s the only shot for success if your QB situation has been improved by changing to Gus Frerotten.  Problem here is that Gus is not mobile, so he’s going to be a sitting duck for Julius Peppers after Peppers uses his left arm ion cannon to disintegrate journeyman/turnstile Artis Hicks.  Carolina’s defense up the middle is a touch overrated, so I hope Peterson does play this week just to see if the Panthers can focus on him and contain the damage.  I believe AP will go, it’s 0-2 desperation time.  I’m taking Minnesota.

Rotgut
Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-5.5) - Could this be the week for Pocket Hercules?  Indy is soft up front and Bob Sanders is out, I can see the Jags pulling the upset here.  Also, I’m very disappointed in Goldenlegs thus far - you don’t have any wideouts, Garrard - start scrambling already.  I’m taking Jacksonville.

New York Jets at San Diego (-9) - J-E-T-S Jets! Jets! Jets!  Games down here on the docket are tough to call, I think Philip Rivers and the Chargers are going to pounce on the Jets like the Lost Boys on a beach party, but San Diego’s defense is not enough to support a 9 point spread, especially since New York wears cloves of Favre around their neck.  I’m taking New York to keep it close enough.

Houston at Tennessee (-5) - Meh.  Houston hasn’t played enough to show how overrated they are, and the Titans are a good team all around.  If MJD can be pocket Hercules, can Chris Johnson be pocket Apollo?  Johnson and LenDale White are going to pound the Texans into submission and though we may see some fireworks from Andre Johnson I don’t think the Texans will have enough opportunities to matter.  Gimme Tennessee.

Detroit at San Francisco (-4) - Matt Millen reports that Detroit really wants to establish the run.  Well, this week is their chance.  Let’s just say that I’m not holding my breath (figuratively, of course, I don’t breathe.)  Take San Francisco - I heard this week that Mike Martz would run it up on his old boss - but with who - Arnaz Battle?

Miami at New England (-12.5) - Unless Miami defense or special teams score, the Dolphins are getting shut out.  Is that something you want to leave up to chance?  Me neither - take New England.  The more I watch Miami the more I think they should have put Ronnie Brown on the PUP to start the season.  They aren’t going to win anyway, so why not let him fully rehab and save his legs for the next couple years when you are (hopefully) able to compete?  Sharing time with Ricky Williams is a waste of mileage.

New Orleans at Denver (-5.5) - Jay Cutler is a fantasy delight - he’s captain of a pass-first offense and his defense is bad to the bone.  Buh-buh-buh-buh-BAD.  And I don’t mean that in a good way, like “bad ass”.  I mean, they are a steaming pile of bad.  This whole game is going to be a fantasy gold mine, and as such I have to take the points and New Orleans.  Last team with the ball wins!