AFC East Preview - As The NFL Turns

Since I’m talking about the AFC East I must mention the 2007 New England Patriots, who went undefeated in the regular season but spectacularly failed to close the door on the largest embarrassment in NFL annals. No, I’m not talking about “Spygate”; I’m talking about the 1972 Miami Dolphins and their annoying little mouthpiece, Mercury Morris. You know how high pitched noises can hurt a dog? That’s the sound I hear when someone from the ’72 Dolphins pipes up. On the off chance that someone pushes the envelope again this year, let me make a preemptive strike and tell Mercury to can the trash talk right now – I’m taking you in my dead pool and laying odds. Imagine if Morris conducted an interview with (NEW JETS QB!!!!) Brett Favre. There would be a huge office party in Bristol, CT – the entire ESPN production department would take a month off, it would be lazy sports journalism nirvana. In fact I’m surprised ESPN hasn’t contracted Steven A. Smith to host a regular show with Morris. They could call it “Mouth and Morris: Total Insult”. Seriously, it’s like Vince McMahon is running the largest sports network on TV: 1. Start with something true. 2. Speculate something outrageous that is only tangentially related to #1. 3. Spend enormous amounts of airtime devoted to #2 under the premise that it’s “hard-hitting sports debate.” 4. Wow, we killed that hour – how are the ratings? ESPN has turned sports coverage into a soap opera – “ahahahaha and you thought this crap only played on sports radio!”

New England – 13-3 – AFC East Champ

There isn’t much to write about the Patriots, but I’ll give it a try. The conversation starts and ends with Tom Brady, the best QB in the division, and maybe best in the league depending on how you feel about Peyton Manning. That’s why as long as Brady is healthy the Pats are a lock for double digit wins. Funny thing about Randy Moss, word in the mass media last year was that he was playing up to potential because the Pats have such a winning environment, which is a lot of bunk. Moss was playing up to potential because he didn’t have to work very hard – his problem in Oakland wasn’t losing, he was just too lazy to succeed as the only offensive threat on the field. Given a Brady-led offense in New England, including passes laid softly into his bread-basket and wide open running lanes, Randy got to do what he likes to do – run down the field and catch the ball. None of this coming back up field to help the QB in trouble, or beating double teams, or fighting for the ball in traffic, none of that nonsense. Hell, receiving was so easy he might even block a little – just don’t get carried away or nothin’. The defense here is good, but not so much that you should be too scared – Seymour (when healthy) and Wilfork are studs on the line but the linebackers and secondary are merely average. Everyone on D looks good when the offense posts 35 a game and your opponent goes one-dimensional to catch up – opposing teams only tried 360 rushing attempts last year (lowest in the league.) In a division where the Jets and Dolphins barely had NFL caliber offensive lines even Mike Vrabel can snare 12.5 sacks. Nice thing here is that like you would expect from an organization that knows what it’s doing, Belichick and co. spent the first day of the draft gathering 2 LBs and a DB, including 10^th overall selection Jerod Mayo (thanks Niners!) Then they tagged another LB and DB on day 2. Oh, they also re-upped Moss; the sales pitch was something like “why would you go somewhere else and work your tail off if you can keep riding the Brady train?” Take a look at their cupcake schedule and I dare you to find 4 losses. Seriously, how does a team that went undefeated in 2007 still get to schedule stiffs like KC in week 1? The Pats are really making this look too easy, and are the odds on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

New York – 8-8 – AFC Wild Card

I suppose I should talk about Brett Favre, seeing as how that’s all everyone ESPN wants to talk about, but Jets fans won’t want to hear the reality. Favre has had one good year in the last three, will turn 39 in October, and has thrown one interception per game on average since…well pretty much his whole career. Since 2005: 66 TDs, 62 INTs – he’s just not an elite QB at this point, at an age when decline happens swiftly and without warning. He’s a legend for his durability and creativity on the field, but let’s also not forget that the Packers haven’t been much more than first-round material except once in the last 10 years or so – and that’s in the NFC. Still, wild card in the AFC East is the only realistic goal unless you can hurt Brady, so Favre should feel comfy. Plus it’s not like Pennington or Clemens were lighting it up - now at least opposing defenses will have to respect Favre’s arm if not his decision making. There are a few other things to like about the Jets compared to last year – they addressed their biggest problem from 2007 (complete lack of offensive line) by bringing in Alan Faneca as a huge upgrade at left guard. Faneca’s a stud, and he should solidify the line with former first round picks Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson. The second big problem in ’07, rush defense, was addressed in two ways – firstly by shipping the carcass that was Dwayne Robertson to Denver and secondly trading for Kris Jenkins, formerly of the Panthers. Jenkins used to be a tremendous run stuffer but injuries and booze have taken their toll, a return to form (that’s 350 pounds, son) would go a long way to occupying the middle and keeping blockers off Jets linebackers. Plus the tough schedule from a year ago gets a lot more yummy thanks to their 4-12 record. So I had pegged the Jets as a rebound team and borderline wild card player, but now with Favre in town to give them a little “OMG Favre trips over his own feet but throws it underhand to save the game!!!” I’m counting on New York for a playoff spot…where Favre will give them a little “OMG Favre threw it right to the defense and blew the game!!!” just like usual.

Buffalo – 6-10

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Team smartly builds through the draft, with elite talent at several positions, but gets the QB wrong. It’s a story as old as time, or at least as old as the 1980’s, when Bill Walsh took advantage of passing rules changes in 1978 and revolutionized the NFL into a pass-first league. Like it or not, the QB is the most important position on the field, by a huge margin. You can build homegrown Pro Bowl talent like Jason Peters and Aaron Schobel. You can draft young elite talent like Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, and Donte Whitner. But if you have JP Losman or Trent Edwards calling the plays it’s all for naught. Without a legit passing threat the offense will stall even if Lynch runs with authority – this ain’t Madden, and there is no shake and bake that can beat 8 or 9 guys in the box. But it’s not just the offense that suffers – the defense will constantly be on the field, and even though Schobel’s got the “non-stop motor” that analysts apply to guys with his skin color (if he were a different color he’d be “exceptionally athletic”) his motor will at some point stop. Add it up and you’re looking at a young, talented team that still ranked 30^th in yards gained and 31^st in yards allowed in 2007, getting extremely lucky to make 7 wins out of a 5 win team. Playing Miami and the Jets twice helped. But unlike the Jets, small market Buffalo is so cash strapped that they can’t fund big free agent patches for what ails them, or that’s what they’d have you believe anyway. Last I checked, Ralph Wilson isn’t having any problems at the local Safeway, so spare me the poverty line in a league with a salary cap. No, the problem in Buffalo isn’t money; the problem is that they haven’t had a franchise QB since Jim Kelly retired. That isn’t changing this year, and until it does 7 or 8 wins is the ceiling for these guys, and that will still be the case if they play home games in Toronto. Sorry Bills fans, at least you can enjoy the weather in Buffalo (tee-hee.)

Miami – 4-12

The storied Miami franchise deserves better than this, especially when their heroes Don Shula and Dan Marino are hawking weight loss products and even loudmouths you long forgot about like the aforementioned Mercury Morris are making news by popping off on TV. And then there’s deposed Miami coach Cam Cameron, whose name should have immediately raised red flags with Dolphins front office executives. Right from the start I’m thinking, 6-10 record, tops. I have the same response when I hear Joe Bugel has been added to a coaching staff (uh oh Washington). Seriously, who the …BZZT… allows themselves to be called “Cam” if their last name is Cameron? It’s totally ridiculous. Then again, this is the same front office that went into the 2007 draft with a team that screamed for a QB and then wasted the 9^th overall pick on KR Ted Ginn Jr., likely because his name sounded like the classic Ratt hit “Way Cool, Jr.” Oh, they got their QB in the 2^nd round in John Beck, who barely got on the field for this team in front of Cleo Lemon (“John, you’re making progress but I think we’re going with Cleo…”)  .BZZT…Beck may be out of the NFL by the time you read this. So when you pair that front office with Cameron and an aging, shallow roster, you get a perfect storm of suck. The result was a 1-15 record, which prompted owner Wayne Huzienga to kick open the emergency doors, break the glass and push the Parcells button (use only in case of emergency, alarm will sound.) The good news for Dolphins fans is that things cannot get worse than 2007 and Parcells is the best talent evaluator in recent NFL history. The bad news is that the roster is expansion-team bad. Even Parcells is going to take a couple seasons to clean up this mess; the only returning player with star potential is Ronnie Brown and he’s recovering from a blown knee. Sit tight Dolphins fans, you still have South Beach. The Bills won’t compete either and sometime in December, nature is going to drop 2 feet of snow on their ass.