Archive for August, 2008

Catherine Bach is a close, personal friend of mine. We spent many long, passionate nights in each others’

Ahh...Catherine - I'll always remember your haystacks

embrace while she was at the height of her popularity as Daisy Duke in the seminal series, The Dukes of Hazzard. Now, Jessica Simpson and I have allegedly shared many a sessions of sweet also, but as Daisy Duke, nothing beats the incomprable Ms. Bach. Some of my newer readers may view this paragraph as non-sensical bragging, with no connection to football. Of course, my loyal readers all know better.

You see, in 1982, Tom Wopat and John Schneider walked off the set in a labor dispute. The producers went forward with the series any replacing the second and third most important characters (my own Daisy was number one) with a couple of no-name scrubs. Of course, the show floundered badly, and soon Wopat and Schneider were back – but the show was much worse for wear. Oh, how Catherine cried against my flux capacitor after our strenuous sessions of sweet; she was worried for the series and her livelihood – it was a tough time.

Indianapolis Colts, meet the Dukes of Hazzard.

Indianapolis Colts -11-5 – Division Winner

Peyton Manning is said to be healthy, I’ll believe it when I see it, but he’s not very mobile anyway. I think he’ll be alright, but Colts fans are on pins and needles awaiting a view at Manning in action, and they should be. It may be a slow start for Manning, but by week 3, he should be OK. If Manning is really hurt, forget about it, the Jaguars win this division going away. Manning, however, is not the reason for my Daisy Duke analogy – Jeff Saturday is. Saturday will be out for a considerable amount of time, well into the regular season. Saturday is the guy who has to make line calls in time with Peyton Manning’s wild gestures. I swear, Manning looks like a Jerome Robbins dancer who needs to go pee-pee really bad, it’s bleeping annoying. Anyhoo – Saturday was very good at this and kept Manning upright, not an easy task. Steve Justice is most likely to have this task now, and it really worries me that the kid (he’s 24 years old) won’t be up to the task. We’ll know very quickly if Justice is up to the task, of course the Colts will need to simplify their offense, but that isn’t a big deal, I think, they have a ton of offensive talent at skill positions.

Defensively, not much has changed, which is a good thing. Bob Sanders needs to stay healthy, but expect a defense that will be hard hitting, and quick. If the offense is better than half speed, the opposing offenses will be one dimensional and make it easy

Jacksonville Jaguars – 11-5 – Wildcard Winner

I love David Garrard, he’s a very good pro QB. Now, you fantasy fans don’t love him as much as I do, that’s understandable. Garrard only ever has one flashy stat, his INT numbers (18 TDs to 3 INTs…THREE!!). Garrard takes care of the ball, and that, coupled with the Jags’ running game (Maurice Jones-Drew and Fred Taylor) make the Jags a dangerous team. The Jags have a couple new WRs in the fold, Jerry Porter and Troy Williamson, they should be a slight upgrade (hold onto the ball, Troy), but they don’t matter too much, this is a ball control team.

The Jags added Derrick Harvey to add to an already dangerous pass rush, they learned from the Eagles/Giants formula against the Pats, and could cause…BZT… some real problems for the Colts, especially if Saturday is out for both games against the Jags. The Jaguars are a steady, well coached team by Jack Del Rio, who I like to call Jack of the River (put the ax away Jack). The Jags are going to cause opposing teams fits, and I can easily see the Jags running away with the division if the Colts have a real problem at center.

Tennessee Titans – 8-8

Vince Young better step up. Frankly, I am putting some unfounded faith in Young, and this is a situation where I am trusting Jeff Fisher to get this guy interested in playing professional football. You would think that huge paycheck would be enough motivation, but apparently not enough for Vincent. I expect the Titans to pull a page from the Jags playbook and keep the ball on the ground. Like Jeff Saturday (I really can’t overemphasize his loss) Young’s dedication level is THE key storyline for the Titans. One thing I like for Young’s chances , and why I have them at 8-8 , is the fact that Mike Heimerdinger is back to bring Young along like he did for Steve McNair. I like their rushing game with Lendale White and the rookie Chris Johnson. Johnson could be the best of the bunch in a rookie RB crop full of talent and opportunity. Look for Alge Crumpler to be the #1 option for the Titans for most passing plays.

Jevon Kearse is also back…big whoop. Seriously, Jevon will be a capable situational #4 DE for the Titans, but this is a solid unit who were in the top 10 in sacks and yards allowed. Albert Haynesworth is a manimal who will command a lot of attention and let the linebackers concentrate on getting to the ball carrier without having to fight off linemen.

Houston Texans – 8-8

The Texans are on the right course, but have a major question, who is the QB who will win them the most games this year? All evidence so far points to Sage Rosenfels, but Texans management is betting on the younger Matt Schaub. Schaub will start the season, but should not be considered Teflon. If he falters, I would put in Rosenfels, my prediction heuristics can’t quite predict what coach Gary Kubiak will do if Schaub falters due to performance, not injury. Kubiak is the guy most responsible for the Denver Broncos rushing success, helping perfect the Zone Blocking scheme. I like the Texans running back stable, and I expect rookie Steve Slaton to separate himself from Ahman Green, Chris Taylor and Chris Brown, but Green looks to be the guy at the beginning of the season. The Texans also have a sweet receiving corps led by Andre Johnson. Kevin Walter and TE Owen Daniels give the QB plenty of options.

If Houston is going to make the playoffs they need to get better at stopping their opponents. The Texans allowed 344 yards per game, which put them at #24 in the league. Mario Williams has turned out to be a worthy selection over Reggie Bush, but the Texans need to stop the run much better with DTs Travis Johnson and Anthony Weaver. The Texans were better against the run than the pass (#19 against the rush) in 2007, but I think excelling against the run will be key for the Texans, force their opponents to pass, let Mario and Amobi Okoye go after the QB and create some chaos.

Mediocrity is a dish best served luke warm… And slightly cold in the center, like uneaten peas, and the AFC North are a bunch of cozy peas in a squishy pod. Actually – it’s just the teams’ records that are mediocre here. These teams, are good at the top, but they have tough schedules, and I don’t see 10 wins for any of them.

There are, however a couple turkeys here. I am a bit of a gourmand myself and nothing turns my stomach like a meal ruined, and this division features a bunch of over cooked filet…Hell, the wasted talent in Cincinnati alone would feed Dom DeLuise during the Feast of Seven Fishes. Have I

Burt, I have something to tell you

mentioned how much I hate that overpaid sycophant? Remind me to tell you about the time I was invited to Burt and Lonie’s place, and that old blowhard DeLuise showed up and broke their toilet seat.

Cleveland Browns -9-7 – Division Winner

I love what Cleveland did with their offense over the offseason. They locked up Derek Anderson for the short term, not too long – bleeping mind you, but long enough to ensure they have the real thing with Brady Quinn…If Quinn is another ina long line of Notre Dame QB busts (I’m looking at you Ron Powlus) then they can re-extend Anderson, and go forward. They also got another weapon for Anderson, Donte Stallworth, this is one of my favorite signings, because Stallworth has shown he can pick an offense quickly (previous 2 seasons in Philadelphia and New England) and be a difference maker. We all know what Braylon Edwards and Hell’s Angel Kellen Winslow can do. The Browns also shored up their offense by adding Manimal Shaun Rogers and Jr. Manimal Corey Williams in trades. I think Cleveland’s defense will be markedly better this year. GM Phil Savage has shown that with a little imagination, you can improve NFL team immediately in certain areas. If Romeo Crennel can show me more this year than he has in years past, then Cleveland can take a huge leap this year - but he needs to step up.

Pittsburgh Steelers – 8-8

Someone has to win the AFC North, so someone has to come in second, right? This is going to be a controversial pick, I understand that – but the Steelers are going to lose a spot in the playoffs because of their tough schedule. I like the Steelers offensive stars – Hells Angel Ben Roethlyzplyk, Fast/Quick/Speedy Willie Parker and Santonio Holmes should all have good fantasy years, and I know you all care about that. Hines Ward is coming off a rough year last year, and should be a good slot/possession type guy for the Home of Steely McBeam. We all know that the Steelers had the #1 ranked defense last year, and they should have a very good defense this year. I have the Steelers with

Ummm...Yeah...You're even worse than Swoop

one less win because the Steelers play the tougher schedule, in the AFC West, the Browns play the Broncos and the Steelers play the Chargers. It bleeping sucks eggs, I know, but that’s life in the NFL. The Steelers could sneak in as a Wild Card team if the Brett Favre Experiment blows up, but this is going to be a tough year for the Black and Gold.

Cincinnati Bengals – 6-10

Ay, ay, ay…I don’t know where to begin. This team has a lot of offensive potential, and have arguably the best QB in the division in Carson Palmer, and you know how important…BZZT… I think the QB position is…But Palmer’s not that much better than the Browns’ tandem and Mr. Roethlyzplyk; and the rest of the team is more cracked and crappy then that toilet seat DeLuise broke. The Brown family needs to open their checkbook and get a real football man (or robot…hmmm?) running the show there. Chad Johnson, Chris Henry, Rudi Johnson…have the Bengals done anything right? Well, they signed Ben Utecht away from Indianapolis. That was a good move, the Bengals haven’t had a real threat at TE in years, and I think Palmer/Utecht will be a very nice combo this year. They also drafted Keith Rivers, nice pick there, a good kid who should start right away, beyond that, the Bengals have done little right. I am on my pulpit now, but this team is a complete mess – they are wasting a talented QB with Palmer. If the Bengals finish with a record close to what I predict, then Marvin Lewis will lose his job. If Lewis is gone, then the Browns should completely wipe the slate clean, get a VP of Football Operations, GM and new coach, and give Palmer a real chance.

Baltimore Ravens – 5-11

The Ravens, on the other hand are a team on the rise. This is a well run organization, and they know how to pick talent, nurture it, and keep that…BZZT… talent. This year will be a rebuilding year, however, and Ravens fans should be watching, of course, for the maturation of Joe Flacco. Depending on the philosophy of GM Ozzie Newsome and first year head coach John Harbaugh, that maturation may not happen on the field on Sundays. The defense will be stout again, led by team captain/dancer/accomplice Ray Lewis the Ravens boast a solid, attacking defense. Their special teams should also be solid with special teams wizard Harbaugh minding the store. The supporting cast on offense leaves a little to be desired with Willis McGahee, Derrick Mason and Todd Heap leading the charge, but little else behind them. Rest assured Ravens fans, there is a plan, and unlike Burt, Lonie and the Bengals, it doesn’t involve Super Glue, toilet paper and red-faced embaraasment.

Since I’m talking about the AFC East I must mention the 2007 New England Patriots, who went undefeated in the regular season but spectacularly failed to close the door on the largest embarrassment in NFL annals. No, I’m not talking about “Spygate”; I’m talking about the 1972 Miami Dolphins and their annoying little mouthpiece, Mercury Morris. You know how high pitched noises can hurt a dog? That’s the sound I hear when someone from the ’72 Dolphins pipes up. On the off chance that someone pushes the envelope again this year, let me make a preemptive strike and tell Mercury to can the trash talk right now – I’m taking you in my dead pool and laying odds. Imagine if Morris conducted an interview with (NEW JETS QB!!!!) Brett Favre. There would be a huge office party in Bristol, CT – the entire ESPN production department would take a month off, it would be lazy sports journalism nirvana. In fact I’m surprised ESPN hasn’t contracted Steven A. Smith to host a regular show with Morris. They could call it “Mouth and Morris: Total Insult”. Seriously, it’s like Vince McMahon is running the largest sports network on TV: 1. Start with something true. 2. Speculate something outrageous that is only tangentially related to #1. 3. Spend enormous amounts of airtime devoted to #2 under the premise that it’s “hard-hitting sports debate.” 4. Wow, we killed that hour – how are the ratings? ESPN has turned sports coverage into a soap opera – “ahahahaha and you thought this crap only played on sports radio!”

New England – 13-3 – AFC East Champ

There isn’t much to write about the Patriots, but I’ll give it a try. The conversation starts and ends with Tom Brady, the best QB in the division, and maybe best in the league depending on how you feel about Peyton Manning. That’s why as long as Brady is healthy the Pats are a lock for double digit wins. Funny thing about Randy Moss, word in the mass media last year was that he was playing up to potential because the Pats have such a winning environment, which is a lot of bunk. Moss was playing up to potential because he didn’t have to work very hard – his problem in Oakland wasn’t losing, he was just too lazy to succeed as the only offensive threat on the field. Given a Brady-led offense in New England, including passes laid softly into his bread-basket and wide open running lanes, Randy got to do what he likes to do – run down the field and catch the ball. None of this coming back up field to help the QB in trouble, or beating double teams, or fighting for the ball in traffic, none of that nonsense. Hell, receiving was so easy he might even block a little – just don’t get carried away or nothin’. The defense here is good, but not so much that you should be too scared – Seymour (when healthy) and Wilfork are studs on the line but the linebackers and secondary are merely average. Everyone on D looks good when the offense posts 35 a game and your opponent goes one-dimensional to catch up – opposing teams only tried 360 rushing attempts last year (lowest in the league.) In a division where the Jets and Dolphins barely had NFL caliber offensive lines even Mike Vrabel can snare 12.5 sacks. Nice thing here is that like you would expect from an organization that knows what it’s doing, Belichick and co. spent the first day of the draft gathering 2 LBs and a DB, including 10^th overall selection Jerod Mayo (thanks Niners!) Then they tagged another LB and DB on day 2. Oh, they also re-upped Moss; the sales pitch was something like “why would you go somewhere else and work your tail off if you can keep riding the Brady train?” Take a look at their cupcake schedule and I dare you to find 4 losses. Seriously, how does a team that went undefeated in 2007 still get to schedule stiffs like KC in week 1? The Pats are really making this look too easy, and are the odds on favorite to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl.

New York – 8-8 – AFC Wild Card

I suppose I should talk about Brett Favre, seeing as how that’s all everyone ESPN wants to talk about, but Jets fans won’t want to hear the reality. Favre has had one good year in the last three, will turn 39 in October, and has thrown one interception per game on average since…well pretty much his whole career. Since 2005: 66 TDs, 62 INTs – he’s just not an elite QB at this point, at an age when decline happens swiftly and without warning. He’s a legend for his durability and creativity on the field, but let’s also not forget that the Packers haven’t been much more than first-round material except once in the last 10 years or so – and that’s in the NFC. Still, wild card in the AFC East is the only realistic goal unless you can hurt Brady, so Favre should feel comfy. Plus it’s not like Pennington or Clemens were lighting it up - now at least opposing defenses will have to respect Favre’s arm if not his decision making. There are a few other things to like about the Jets compared to last year – they addressed their biggest problem from 2007 (complete lack of offensive line) by bringing in Alan Faneca as a huge upgrade at left guard. Faneca’s a stud, and he should solidify the line with former first round picks Nick Mangold and D’Brickashaw Ferguson. The second big problem in ’07, rush defense, was addressed in two ways – firstly by shipping the carcass that was Dwayne Robertson to Denver and secondly trading for Kris Jenkins, formerly of the Panthers. Jenkins used to be a tremendous run stuffer but injuries and booze have taken their toll, a return to form (that’s 350 pounds, son) would go a long way to occupying the middle and keeping blockers off Jets linebackers. Plus the tough schedule from a year ago gets a lot more yummy thanks to their 4-12 record. So I had pegged the Jets as a rebound team and borderline wild card player, but now with Favre in town to give them a little “OMG Favre trips over his own feet but throws it underhand to save the game!!!” I’m counting on New York for a playoff spot…where Favre will give them a little “OMG Favre threw it right to the defense and blew the game!!!” just like usual.

Buffalo – 6-10

Stop me if you’ve heard this one before. Team smartly builds through the draft, with elite talent at several positions, but gets the QB wrong. It’s a story as old as time, or at least as old as the 1980’s, when Bill Walsh took advantage of passing rules changes in 1978 and revolutionized the NFL into a pass-first league. Like it or not, the QB is the most important position on the field, by a huge margin. You can build homegrown Pro Bowl talent like Jason Peters and Aaron Schobel. You can draft young elite talent like Lee Evans, Marshawn Lynch, Paul Posluszny, and Donte Whitner. But if you have JP Losman or Trent Edwards calling the plays it’s all for naught. Without a legit passing threat the offense will stall even if Lynch runs with authority – this ain’t Madden, and there is no shake and bake that can beat 8 or 9 guys in the box. But it’s not just the offense that suffers – the defense will constantly be on the field, and even though Schobel’s got the “non-stop motor” that analysts apply to guys with his skin color (if he were a different color he’d be “exceptionally athletic”) his motor will at some point stop. Add it up and you’re looking at a young, talented team that still ranked 30^th in yards gained and 31^st in yards allowed in 2007, getting extremely lucky to make 7 wins out of a 5 win team. Playing Miami and the Jets twice helped. But unlike the Jets, small market Buffalo is so cash strapped that they can’t fund big free agent patches for what ails them, or that’s what they’d have you believe anyway. Last I checked, Ralph Wilson isn’t having any problems at the local Safeway, so spare me the poverty line in a league with a salary cap. No, the problem in Buffalo isn’t money; the problem is that they haven’t had a franchise QB since Jim Kelly retired. That isn’t changing this year, and until it does 7 or 8 wins is the ceiling for these guys, and that will still be the case if they play home games in Toronto. Sorry Bills fans, at least you can enjoy the weather in Buffalo (tee-hee.)

Miami – 4-12

The storied Miami franchise deserves better than this, especially when their heroes Don Shula and Dan Marino are hawking weight loss products and even loudmouths you long forgot about like the aforementioned Mercury Morris are making news by popping off on TV. And then there’s deposed Miami coach Cam Cameron, whose name should have immediately raised red flags with Dolphins front office executives. Right from the start I’m thinking, 6-10 record, tops. I have the same response when I hear Joe Bugel has been added to a coaching staff (uh oh Washington). Seriously, who the …BZZT… allows themselves to be called “Cam” if their last name is Cameron? It’s totally ridiculous. Then again, this is the same front office that went into the 2007 draft with a team that screamed for a QB and then wasted the 9^th overall pick on KR Ted Ginn Jr., likely because his name sounded like the classic Ratt hit “Way Cool, Jr.” Oh, they got their QB in the 2^nd round in John Beck, who barely got on the field for this team in front of Cleo Lemon (“John, you’re making progress but I think we’re going with Cleo…”)  .BZZT…Beck may be out of the NFL by the time you read this. So when you pair that front office with Cameron and an aging, shallow roster, you get a perfect storm of suck. The result was a 1-15 record, which prompted owner Wayne Huzienga to kick open the emergency doors, break the glass and push the Parcells button (use only in case of emergency, alarm will sound.) The good news for Dolphins fans is that things cannot get worse than 2007 and Parcells is the best talent evaluator in recent NFL history. The bad news is that the roster is expansion-team bad. Even Parcells is going to take a couple seasons to clean up this mess; the only returning player with star potential is Ronnie Brown and he’s recovering from a blown knee. Sit tight Dolphins fans, you still have South Beach. The Bills won’t compete either and sometime in December, nature is going to drop 2 feet of snow on their ass.

Being from Las Vegas, I know from re-building efforts - and with 2 of the first 5 picks in the draft, this division is like a bleepin’ construction site.  Also, since the Raiders and Chiefs spent those draft picks on players from LSU and Arkansas, it’s not a stretch to question if the AFC West should merge with the SEC West.  Quick shout out to The Foundations for their brilliant one-hit wonder “Build me up Buttercup”, which I’m declaring Lane Kiffin’s theme song - firstly, it’s appropriate for the way Al Davis works him around and also because less than 4 months from now Kiffin’s NFL head coaching career will be pushing up daisies.  Not that it’s his fault, and I mean the pay is good.  BZZT….Anyway a minor footnote - British invasion purists might consider “Baby, Now That I’ve Found You” a second hit for The Foundations but I’m here to tell you that across the Atlantic does not count boys.

San Diego – 11-5 – AFC West Champ

Count me in among the people surprised to see the Chargers make a late season run and win a pair of playoff games last season. I figured they would win the division going away but Norv Turner showed a bit of moxie late in the year and honestly I didn’t think he had it in him. I mean, he never had it before so I was just playing the odds. It could have been a fluke but we’ll find out this year since they still outclass everyone else in this division. Phillip Rivers’ knee is a concern, as is Antonio Gates’ foot. But even a slow start for them would still leave LaDainian Tomlinson and a plus-defense – more than enough to return to the playoffs here. Tomlinson is the bright point on an offense that ranked 7^th in rush yards but only 26^th in pass yards, he’s durable and averages almost 5 yards per carry and 8 yards per reception. He’s one of the top players in the NFL, where QBs rule, and a good bet for 2000 yards from scrimmage again this season. I’d feel better about the 11 win projection if the defense would improve a bit (12^th against the run, 14^th against the pass), I don’t think we can count on them leading the league in turnovers again. On the other hand, when you have pass rushers like Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips creating havoc in the backfield, that goes a long way towards generating gobs of sack-fumbles and interceptions.  Honestly even after last season I find it difficult to get behind a team coached by Norv Turner, so you know the rest of this division rots.

Denver – 7-9

No reason to believe Denver is going to be any better than last season. Jay Cutler will improve but will Brandon Marshall be around to take advantage? Seriously, that dude needs to chill it because it’s open season on jackasses in the NFL. It doesn’t matter either way, since Mike Shanahan is too busy toying with his offensive backfield to address the abysmal run defense (30^th in yards allowed) – which the team did not improve via the draft (one DT taken in round 5) or free agency (Dwayne Robertson? Puh-leeze.) TMQ reports this week that Shanahan thinks of himself as the “ultimate leader.”  You arrogant punk. Oh, they’ll win 6-8 games mainly on the backs of the tasty AFC West cellar dwellers but these horses can’t hang with the AFC elite. Even using KC and Oakland as a springboard to a backdoor wild card berth will just mean someone like the Colts will trounce them by 30 in the first round. Oh, and let me also say how ridiculous it is that the Broncos stockpile CBs at the expense of upgrading the beef on their defensive front seven. Primary competition in this division’s offense comes from RBs (Tomlinson, LJ) and TEs (Gates, Gonzalez) and not much at WR. Sure it’s nice to have a shutdown corner like Champ Bailey but when your safeties can’t cover the TE and your DL features undersized pass rushers like Elvis Dumervil nobody needs to bother throwing outside.

Kansas City – 5-11

Let the rebuilding begin! As I told you last year this team is old and bad and due for a long run of suck. By all accounts the Chiefs had a great draft, using first round picks on linemen for both sides of the ball - DT Glenn Dorsey and G/T Branden Albert. You build a solid foundation from the lines out so it’s a good start; unfortunately getting an extra first round pick meant losing their best player (Jared Allen.) I suppose it’s the right move for KC because the problem here is that by the time Herm and friends find a QB that can play at the pro level the best skill guys on the current roster like Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez will be washed up. You forget because Dick Vermeil screwed him for a couple years but LJ turns 29 in November and the 416 carries he logged in 2006 is the type of workload that can ruin a guy. So it’s kind of a bad situation when the offense completely relies on him (number of wins without LJ in 2007 = 0.) Dwayne Bowe showed me a little bit last year; I’ve got my eye on him in fantasy ball as a garbage time dynamo. Other than D-Bowe, the best hope for Chiefs fans is a poor record again in 2008 so they can stab at a franchise QB in the 2009 draft and compete again in 2010. Until then they may as well root for the Cowboys and enjoy the fact that a Herm Edwards press conference is solid gold, baby.  Solid gold.

Oakland – 5-11

Let the rebuilding continue! It’s tough to evaluate the rebuilding efforts of a team that is throwing money at stiffs like Tommie Kelly and Javon Walker. 2007 wasn’t all bad, 4^th in rushing attempts and 6^th in rush yards showed they understood the skill position talent they had (or didn’t have, as it were) and also some relief that the disastrous OL in 2006 could make a comeback given the right coaching. On the other hand, for a rebuilding team, they sold off all but a handful of 2008 draft picks, the only notable player coming in the form of Darren McFadden, who unfortunately plays the same position that the Raiders spent a ton of free agent money upgrading in the last few years (Lamont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes.) And what to make of JaMarcus Russell? We haven’t seen enough to write him off yet; he started late so the only thing you can say is that for a rebuilding team it seems like a waste to only let Russell get into 4 games (1 start) during his rookie year. I mean, they’re paying him a small fortune as a #1 pick/franchise QB, might as well let him make a go of it. Defensively, it was painful to see a unit that allowed the 3^rd best yardage per game in 2006 fall all the way to 22^nd in 2007, especially the run defense which imploded thanks in part to big-talk/small-play Warren Sapp, now thankfully retired. Sapp aged from a trash talking goof into one of the most charismatic players in recent memory, yet I’m crossing my fingers here that he doesn’t show up in a way-too-small suit on some pre-game show, yucking it up with one of the Sharpe brothers or Deion Sanders. You could say some nice things about the Raiders secondary, but when the D gives up almost 5 yards per carry does it really matter? This is a lot of words to say that Oakland still doesn’t have many elite players, they haven’t really addressed their problems with rush defense, and their franchise QB couldn’t get on the field for a 4-12 team. Five wins is generous – this is a dysfunctional organization that needs to hit the jackpot with Russell. It will take a huge leap forward from the QB to raise this team to a competitive level.

I took a bit of a vacation after that post in May. Someone really should have told me that this blogging gig involves regular posting of material. I went to Tahiti for two months, and come back to an inbox full of angry emails from Tony Holm. Hey, sorry Tony, blame the two goobs who bleeping translate these blogs for me!

Anyway, I’m back in that game, as we say in Vegas.

It’s like I told Svetlana, the other night during an intense Session of Sweet, “Not so rough on the chassis, woman!” Ha…ha…Yeah, I said that too. No, I told her,”You can’t buy good help anymore…” I know that, you know that, and the New York Jets are about to find it out too. Eh, more on Favre later, let’s just say the Jets may be better this year, but not by enough – and no one is going to win in this whole deal…

A lot of you are clamoring for my annual NFL prediction column…So that’s what we’ll start with. But since this is a blog, it’ll be chopped up into easily digestible chunks, like gin soaked olives.

We’ll start out in the NFC West, one of the easier divisions to predict…

Seattle Seahawks -9-7 – Division Winner

Seattle is a forerunner in the new Succession…bzzzt…Planning model in major sports. Mike Holmgren is leaving after this year, his successor is on the staff already, and been named. Jim Mora (Jr…Not Jim “Playoffs?!?!” Mora Sr.). So will the Hawks play for him? They’re professionals, right? Actually that doesn’t matter for a lot of NFL players, but the Seahawks are a veteran team. I don’t think there will be a problem. They have a solid defense and a solid offense…and in the NFC West, that’s all you need. Look for them to beat up on the in-division rivals, and struggle against the NFC East and AFC East.

Arizona Cardinals – 8-8

USC has the best cheerleading outfits in college football.

Thought I would share that; and by the way I also think Matt Leinart turns the corner this year. The Cards will score a ton of points …and give a lot of points up too. But it will look not quite as bad because they have 4 games against the Niners and Rams (notice a trend here?). I like Boldin, Fitzgerald and Pope as receivers for Leinart, and expect the Cards O-line to look better with their second year under Ken Whisenhunt. I think the Cardinals are a year away, if Leinart matures on the field, and their D-line shows it can hold the line of scrimmage as the year goes on.

San Francisco 49ers – 6-10

Paul Lynde was a magic talent. That man was THE unchallenged master of the double entendre in the late 60s and 70s. I always said this when I was on The Hollywood Squares, you don’t need Xs, you don’t need Os; all you need is Paul Lynde and the master Straight Man, Peter Marshall. Why do I mention this? Because you’re better off watching reruns of The Hollywood Squares, Frisco.

This team could be very hard to watch. It all comes down to the QB, and the Niners don’t even know for sure who their QB is going to be. Alex Smith, Shaun Hill…hell, even J.T. O’Sullivan – no one knows who’ll be under center on Opening Day. It doesn’t matter what else the Niners have going on (and I like their defense a little bit) – they have no QB, so they have no chance. I’m a fan of Frank Gore, and I like the Bryant Johnson pick up, but they need to make decision quickly on who will be the Man in the huddle.

St. Louis Rams – 5-11

The Rams have a QB, and a pretty good one in Mark Bulger, but he has a hard time staying healthy…Even assuming he stays healthy, I see bad things for this team. And, by the way, did I mention their only offensive weapon besides a rapidly aging Tory Holt is holding out? That’s right, there’s no Steven Jackson to be found at Rams camp. This is not a good situation.

I kind of like the Rams D-Line this year, Chris Long’s addition will allow the Rams to move Adam Carriker on most downs, where he can do more damage against the run. I am a bit concerned by the horrible run defense the Rams showed against the Titians in the first pre-season game. I think this points more to the sub-par back  seven of the Rams…They’re even talking to Adam Archuleta about a possible return!! Not good St. Louis, not good.