AFC West Preview - Build Me Up Buttercup

Being from Las Vegas, I know from re-building efforts - and with 2 of the first 5 picks in the draft, this division is like a bleepin’ construction site.  Also, since the Raiders and Chiefs spent those draft picks on players from LSU and Arkansas, it’s not a stretch to question if the AFC West should merge with the SEC West.  Quick shout out to The Foundations for their brilliant one-hit wonder “Build me up Buttercup”, which I’m declaring Lane Kiffin’s theme song - firstly, it’s appropriate for the way Al Davis works him around and also because less than 4 months from now Kiffin’s NFL head coaching career will be pushing up daisies.  Not that it’s his fault, and I mean the pay is good.  BZZT….Anyway a minor footnote - British invasion purists might consider “Baby, Now That I’ve Found You” a second hit for The Foundations but I’m here to tell you that across the Atlantic does not count boys.

San Diego – 11-5 – AFC West Champ

Count me in among the people surprised to see the Chargers make a late season run and win a pair of playoff games last season. I figured they would win the division going away but Norv Turner showed a bit of moxie late in the year and honestly I didn’t think he had it in him. I mean, he never had it before so I was just playing the odds. It could have been a fluke but we’ll find out this year since they still outclass everyone else in this division. Phillip Rivers’ knee is a concern, as is Antonio Gates’ foot. But even a slow start for them would still leave LaDainian Tomlinson and a plus-defense – more than enough to return to the playoffs here. Tomlinson is the bright point on an offense that ranked 7^th in rush yards but only 26^th in pass yards, he’s durable and averages almost 5 yards per carry and 8 yards per reception. He’s one of the top players in the NFL, where QBs rule, and a good bet for 2000 yards from scrimmage again this season. I’d feel better about the 11 win projection if the defense would improve a bit (12^th against the run, 14^th against the pass), I don’t think we can count on them leading the league in turnovers again. On the other hand, when you have pass rushers like Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips creating havoc in the backfield, that goes a long way towards generating gobs of sack-fumbles and interceptions.  Honestly even after last season I find it difficult to get behind a team coached by Norv Turner, so you know the rest of this division rots.

Denver – 7-9

No reason to believe Denver is going to be any better than last season. Jay Cutler will improve but will Brandon Marshall be around to take advantage? Seriously, that dude needs to chill it because it’s open season on jackasses in the NFL. It doesn’t matter either way, since Mike Shanahan is too busy toying with his offensive backfield to address the abysmal run defense (30^th in yards allowed) – which the team did not improve via the draft (one DT taken in round 5) or free agency (Dwayne Robertson? Puh-leeze.) TMQ reports this week that Shanahan thinks of himself as the “ultimate leader.”  You arrogant punk. Oh, they’ll win 6-8 games mainly on the backs of the tasty AFC West cellar dwellers but these horses can’t hang with the AFC elite. Even using KC and Oakland as a springboard to a backdoor wild card berth will just mean someone like the Colts will trounce them by 30 in the first round. Oh, and let me also say how ridiculous it is that the Broncos stockpile CBs at the expense of upgrading the beef on their defensive front seven. Primary competition in this division’s offense comes from RBs (Tomlinson, LJ) and TEs (Gates, Gonzalez) and not much at WR. Sure it’s nice to have a shutdown corner like Champ Bailey but when your safeties can’t cover the TE and your DL features undersized pass rushers like Elvis Dumervil nobody needs to bother throwing outside.

Kansas City – 5-11

Let the rebuilding begin! As I told you last year this team is old and bad and due for a long run of suck. By all accounts the Chiefs had a great draft, using first round picks on linemen for both sides of the ball - DT Glenn Dorsey and G/T Branden Albert. You build a solid foundation from the lines out so it’s a good start; unfortunately getting an extra first round pick meant losing their best player (Jared Allen.) I suppose it’s the right move for KC because the problem here is that by the time Herm and friends find a QB that can play at the pro level the best skill guys on the current roster like Larry Johnson and Tony Gonzalez will be washed up. You forget because Dick Vermeil screwed him for a couple years but LJ turns 29 in November and the 416 carries he logged in 2006 is the type of workload that can ruin a guy. So it’s kind of a bad situation when the offense completely relies on him (number of wins without LJ in 2007 = 0.) Dwayne Bowe showed me a little bit last year; I’ve got my eye on him in fantasy ball as a garbage time dynamo. Other than D-Bowe, the best hope for Chiefs fans is a poor record again in 2008 so they can stab at a franchise QB in the 2009 draft and compete again in 2010. Until then they may as well root for the Cowboys and enjoy the fact that a Herm Edwards press conference is solid gold, baby.  Solid gold.

Oakland – 5-11

Let the rebuilding continue! It’s tough to evaluate the rebuilding efforts of a team that is throwing money at stiffs like Tommie Kelly and Javon Walker. 2007 wasn’t all bad, 4^th in rushing attempts and 6^th in rush yards showed they understood the skill position talent they had (or didn’t have, as it were) and also some relief that the disastrous OL in 2006 could make a comeback given the right coaching. On the other hand, for a rebuilding team, they sold off all but a handful of 2008 draft picks, the only notable player coming in the form of Darren McFadden, who unfortunately plays the same position that the Raiders spent a ton of free agent money upgrading in the last few years (Lamont Jordan, Dominic Rhodes.) And what to make of JaMarcus Russell? We haven’t seen enough to write him off yet; he started late so the only thing you can say is that for a rebuilding team it seems like a waste to only let Russell get into 4 games (1 start) during his rookie year. I mean, they’re paying him a small fortune as a #1 pick/franchise QB, might as well let him make a go of it. Defensively, it was painful to see a unit that allowed the 3^rd best yardage per game in 2006 fall all the way to 22^nd in 2007, especially the run defense which imploded thanks in part to big-talk/small-play Warren Sapp, now thankfully retired. Sapp aged from a trash talking goof into one of the most charismatic players in recent memory, yet I’m crossing my fingers here that he doesn’t show up in a way-too-small suit on some pre-game show, yucking it up with one of the Sharpe brothers or Deion Sanders. You could say some nice things about the Raiders secondary, but when the D gives up almost 5 yards per carry does it really matter? This is a lot of words to say that Oakland still doesn’t have many elite players, they haven’t really addressed their problems with rush defense, and their franchise QB couldn’t get on the field for a 4-12 team. Five wins is generous – this is a dysfunctional organization that needs to hit the jackpot with Russell. It will take a huge leap forward from the QB to raise this team to a competitive level.

NFC West Preview

I took a bit of a vacation after that post in May. Someone really should have told me that this blogging gig involves regular posting of material. I went to Tahiti for two months, and come back to an inbox full of angry emails from Tony Holm. Hey, sorry Tony, blame the two goobs who bleeping translate these blogs for me!

Anyway, I’m back in that game, as we say in Vegas.

It’s like I told Svetlana, the other night during an intense Session of Sweet, “Not so rough on the chassis, woman!” Ha…ha…Yeah, I said that too. No, I told her,”You can’t buy good help anymore…” I know that, you know that, and the New York Jets are about to find it out too. Eh, more on Favre later, let’s just say the Jets may be better this year, but not by enough – and no one is going to win in this whole deal…

A lot of you are clamoring for my annual NFL prediction column…So that’s what we’ll start with. But since this is a blog, it’ll be chopped up into easily digestible chunks, like gin soaked olives.

We’ll start out in the NFC West, one of the easier divisions to predict…

Seattle Seahawks -9-7 – Division Winner

Seattle is a forerunner in the new Succession…bzzzt…Planning model in major sports. Mike Holmgren is leaving after this year, his successor is on the staff already, and been named. Jim Mora (Jr…Not Jim “Playoffs?!?!” Mora Sr.). So will the Hawks play for him? They’re professionals, right? Actually that doesn’t matter for a lot of NFL players, but the Seahawks are a veteran team. I don’t think there will be a problem. They have a solid defense and a solid offense…and in the NFC West, that’s all you need. Look for them to beat up on the in-division rivals, and struggle against the NFC East and AFC East.

Arizona Cardinals – 8-8

USC has the best cheerleading outfits in college football.

Thought I would share that; and by the way I also think Matt Leinart turns the corner this year. The Cards will score a ton of points …and give a lot of points up too. But it will look not quite as bad because they have 4 games against the Niners and Rams (notice a trend here?). I like Boldin, Fitzgerald and Pope as receivers for Leinart, and expect the Cards O-line to look better with their second year under Ken Whisenhunt. I think the Cardinals are a year away, if Leinart matures on the field, and their D-line shows it can hold the line of scrimmage as the year goes on.

San Francisco 49ers – 6-10

Paul Lynde was a magic talent. That man was THE unchallenged master of the double entendre in the late 60s and 70s. I always said this when I was on The Hollywood Squares, you don’t need Xs, you don’t need Os; all you need is Paul Lynde and the master Straight Man, Peter Marshall. Why do I mention this? Because you’re better off watching reruns of The Hollywood Squares, Frisco.

This team could be very hard to watch. It all comes down to the QB, and the Niners don’t even know for sure who their QB is going to be. Alex Smith, Shaun Hill…hell, even J.T. O’Sullivan – no one knows who’ll be under center on Opening Day. It doesn’t matter what else the Niners have going on (and I like their defense a little bit) – they have no QB, so they have no chance. I’m a fan of Frank Gore, and I like the Bryant Johnson pick up, but they need to make decision quickly on who will be the Man in the huddle.

St. Louis Rams – 5-11

The Rams have a QB, and a pretty good one in Mark Bulger, but he has a hard time staying healthy…Even assuming he stays healthy, I see bad things for this team. And, by the way, did I mention their only offensive weapon besides a rapidly aging Tory Holt is holding out? That’s right, there’s no Steven Jackson to be found at Rams camp. This is not a good situation.

I kind of like the Rams D-Line this year, Chris Long’s addition will allow the Rams to move Adam Carriker on most downs, where he can do more damage against the run. I am a bit concerned by the horrible run defense the Rams showed against the Titians in the first pre-season game. I think this points more to the sub-par back  seven of the Rams…They’re even talking to Adam Archuleta about a possible return!! Not good St. Louis, not good.

May…bzzzt…14

The Fanex Analysis Draft kicks off soon, believe it or bleeping not! It kicks off the unofficial start to fantasy football season for me. And I like tearing apart the picks, who doesn’t love that! One of the schmoes that transcribes my columns for me shares a team with Chris Dolfi from Fantasysharks fame.

When the picks and analysis start popping up, I’ll update, but you can follow the actual picks here …And hey – what do you know, that Tony…bzzzt…Holm cat has a team too.

Surprisingly enough, To Kill a Mockingbird was actually about the most interesting part of  Atticus Finch’s life…What a coincidence

Skimming the Shark Tank, this is definitely my Thread of the Day… as for me, the guy has no class, but he’ll be in the HOF.

To answer all your questions/emails,etc…No, the Iron Man suit is not based on my body. The Iron Man suit is based on the imagination of Jack “The King” Kirby . Now, I did know Kirby and Stan “The Man” Lee back in the early 60s…IT is possible that my first chassis was used as a basis for Iron Man’s first suit of armor.

May…bzzzt…6

“Betbot, why a blog? Why now?”

“Betbot, where have you been?”

“Betbot, why did you only do 25 picks in your mock draft?”

Questions, questions, bleeping questions.

To answer the first, it felt like the right time. I decided that the world should not be without my wisdom just because it isn’t football season.

To answer the second, I have been relaxing, recuperating living life. I’m a robot, as long as I properly maintain myself, I am going to live forever. That’s almost as scary proposition as dying. Sometimes I need to take…bzt…time off to recollect and think about life. I spent the last 6 months in various ashrams throughout Asia Minor. I am an avowed Catholic, but I have learned much from the World’s great religions.

To answer the third, because that’s why. Actually we were testing some stuff with the blog and it wasn’t public yet, so I figured, why bleeping bother? The last 6 picks (tsk tsk tsk New England) went exactly the way the NFL Draft did. Even if I had the player taken earlier in my mock draft…like Kenny Phillips. Take my bleeping word for it.

I’m still feeling this whole blog thing out. We’ll see where I go with this. The only thing I can promise is that it’ll be 100% Betbot baby, one hundred bleeping percent!

A couple of items recently caught my eye on the news site The Onion. I love these guys, they know how to get to the meaty middle of issues.

TO is worried about character in the Cowboys locker room poor TO…

And have you ever caught yourself saying, “Say no to something Tiger. Say no to SOMETHING!!” He reminds me of Bill Cosby in the early 80s. Before the show with all the crazy sweaters. A breakout star who is one TV selling something or another too damn much. It’s unseemly Mr. Woods, it’s damn unseemly.

Betbot Mock Draft Picks 21-25

21 – Washington Redskins – Limas Sweed – WR - Texas

The entire NFC East has been hot and heavy for WRs (except for the Giants, and frankly, the only thing they have going for them is youth). The Redskins have a tough choice between a WR and Kenny Phillips, who would take place in Washington’s backfield replacing another Miami alumnus, Sean Taylor. Devin Thomas is a consideration, but we go with the more polished commodity.

22 – Dallas Cowboys – Kenny Phillips – S – Miami

Cowboys fans finally are starting to see the light about Roy Williams. He’s great at hitting and illegal tackles, but little else. Scuttlebutt has the Boys going with a RB/WR combo these first two picks, but if Phillips gets past Washington, I see Dallas shoring up their secondary with Phillips.

I know it’s been said before, but what a Rogue’s Gallery the Cowboys locker room is going to be. Hopefully Tank Johnson really has changed, because with Adam Jones, T  O, Tony Romo/Jessica Simpson and Jerry Jones on the sideline…I just don’t bleeping know.

23 – Pittsburgh Steelers – Gosder Cherilus – T – Boston College

With Faneca leaving, the Steelers O-line is starting to look very suspect. This is purely a need pick, and the Steelers could get very good talent at other positions – but I think they have to get one of the last 1-2 round quality tackles here. That makes this a risky pick for them – but they need someone who has a shot at starting this year if someone on their thin line gets hurt.

24 – Tennessee Titans – Calais Campbell– DE – Miami

I’m sorry – but the fact that the Titans brought back Jevon Kearse tell you all you need to know about their DE depth. I don’t like the other WRs left , and Jerod Mayo is a possibility, but Campbell fills a more pressing need.

25 – Seattle Seahawks – Tyrell Johnson – S– Arkansas State

Johnson slips into the first round (sounds like a dirty bleeping joke to me). This guy is good, very good. He’s quick, and fast (there’s a difference folks), and closes on ball carriers and the ball better than Kenny Phillips, at least that’s the bleeping…bzzzt…buzz. If the Seahawks get him, they may have one of the best back sevens in football.

Mock Draft picks 16 - 20

16 – Arizona Cardinals – Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie – CB - Tennessee State

I have Rodgers-Cromartie falling quite a bit here. I don’t know that he will last this long, but I simply can’t find a place for him up above. If Stewart or Mendenhall falls, they could be the pick, but not if a talent like Rodgers-Cromartie is still around.

17 – Minnesota Vikings – Devin Thomas – WR – Michigan State

I am assuming the Vikings get Allen from KC. Thomas has the well documented short-coming of a short career as a starter at MSU, but this is a great spot for him if Allen is traded. The Vikings have a poor WR corps, Berrian’s addition is a help, but he’s not enough. The Vikings haven’t had a lot of luck at the WR position, but Thomas is too good to pass up.

18 – Houston Texans – Chris Williams – T – Vanderbilt

This reminds me of my brief, tumultuous affair with Charo. We were on The Love Boat together…the sexual chemistry between us was undeniable. Well – every mock draft I have seen has Williams going here, and I concur, much like Charo and I at the time, the Texans need Williams, and he has nowhere better to go.

19 – Philadelphia Eagles – Aqib Talib – CB – Kansas

I am assuming the Eagles trade…bzzzt…Lito Sheppard. If they hold onto him (and surely they will know by now even if no trade is consummated) look for Phillips from Miami or a OT if any of the guys I have going before are still around. One note – the Eagles could drive up demand for Sheppard by taking one of the first round CBs here.

20 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Mike Jenkins – CB– South Florida

The Bucs need someone at CB who is not about to enter the fabulous world of AARP discounts. The Tampa 2 system is very forgiving to CBs, and Jenkins could step right in and start for the Bucs. If the Bucs fall in love with Brohm, could he be the pick…? A possible scenario, Brohm is starting to creep back up draft boards.

Betbot Mock Draft Picks 11-15

Betbot Mock Draft Picks 6-10

Betbot Mock Draft Picks 1-5

Initially built by NASA to set lines for the Las Vegas casinos in the late 50’s (who do you think funded the Apollo missions? The government? It was the mob!), The Sin City Betbot 6000 calculated lines for over 30 years. The Betbot was given various upgrades through the years, not always with the best equipment, but he was very good at setting lines, and living the good life.

The Betbot was de-commissioned in 1990 after San Francisco destroyed Denver in the Super Bowl. The 45 point spread simply fried a number of the Betbot’s wires and he retired. The Betbot was discovered by Fantasysharks.com and retooled to give fantasy advice. He lives now to help your team with deeper sleepers to start each week.

Now, he’s joining the blogging game. As he says, “It’s about bleeping time!”

The Betbot’s blog is transcribed each week by Joe Petrizzi and Tom Walls, because, “Typing is a dame’s… BZZZT job.”

We’ll go through the congratulations to me posting a blog later. Suffice to bleeping say – this is a new enterprise for fantasysharks.com and for me. Again, thank you to Mr. Tony Holm for allowing me to spew my wisdom all over your minds. Tony is a good man, a good bleeping man.

The first series of my blogs will be a serialized mock NFL Draft, everyone else is doing it, why not me?

Some rules/assumptions about this mock draft…

- I assume no trades, trades will happen, but for my purposes – no trades.

- My picks are a mix of who I think the best pick is and who I think the organization will take…Depending on the team/circumstance. Most…Bzzzt… picks will be my analysis only, but for those special circumstances, or unorthodox owners (I’m looking at you Al Davis), I may go away from my best pick and take a guy the organization loves (yes, it’s all misinformation t this point…I know).

Let’s get to business here:

1 – Miami Dolphins – Chris Long – DE – Virginia

Look, this pick is going to get traded. But per the above, I gotta stick with the Fins here. Miami needs EVERYTHING…EVERY bleeping THING. I think Jake Long is a real solid choice for Miami wherever they pick to. But I go with the chalk pick here. Chris Long could be a nice bookend for Jason Taylor, assuming he doesn’t become a ballet dancer.

2 – St. Louis Rams – Glenn Dorsey – DT – LSU

I feel good about this one actually happening. Gholston would be a terror on the St. Louis surface, but the Rams need a big body in the middle, and Dorsey fits the bill. A lot of pundits have Carricker going to DE this year with Dorsey in the middle…an excellent front if the Rams do this.

3 – Atlanta Falcons – Jake Long – OT – Michigan

Long’s name has not been tied to the Falcons in a lot of drafts I have seen, but I like him here. The Falcons could use anyone on the offensive or defensive lines (again, Gholston is a temptation). I like Long because I think he is the best player available. I know they could go with Matt Ryan – but I think a lot of teams will be looking for the second tier of projected QB picks (Brohm, Flacco, Henne) at the end of the first, beginning of the second. A lot of teams with picks 25-32 will have plenty of teams looking to trade with them.

This is one of the special circumstances I noted above. The Falcons could look to take Ryan to put Vick behind them, but I think the right pick is Long.

4 – Oakland Raiders – Vernon Gholston – DE – The Ohio State University

Gholston is the pick here. The Raiders need a lot of help with their run defense (and – OK – a lot of other things) but I think they go with Gholston to firm up one of their few strengths, the pass rush.

I don’t believe the McFadden hype, and it is starting to die out now. I hope Mr. Davis has enough sense to know that running back is about the last thing he needs on his team (besides CB).

5 – Kansas City Chiefs – Ryan Clady – OT – Boise State

Booo! The Betbot sucks! I can hear it bleeping now!

This is my first real reach – but the Chiefs O-Line was a disaster last year. The Chiefs could go with Matt Ryan here also, but I think Clady can come in right away and start for the Chiefs. Branden Albert here? I don’t think so – pick 5 is just a bit too high for him.

Welcome to the new FantasySharks.com blog!

That’s right, we’re taking the plunge into the world of blogging and will be unrolling various blogs as we go. Please stay tuned!